• • LGCs hit a record low of $11.25.
  • VEEC market volatility continues with the Activity 44 rule coming into effect.
  • ESC spot closed the week with a rise up to $22.80.
  • PRC volumes were 27% up on the same period last week.
  • ACCUs gained ground, with the generic Spot settling at $35.55.
  • STC market remains quiet.
  • The new Cheaper Home Batteries program reaches over 20,000 installations.
  • We explore the impact of LGC prices on Australia’s renewables target.

Cheaper Home Batteries update.

Australia’s federal government’s new Home Batteries program is generating “unprecedented interest,” signalling a pivotal step in the country’s energy transition. Since its July 1st commencement, there have been over 20,000 installations, with daily battery installations frequently surpassing standalone solar systems.

The average installed battery capacity under the program is 17 kWh, higher than the typical 10-12 kWh. This reflects increased consumer demand for comprehensive energy storage to reduce reliance on traditional sources and enhance resilience during peak demand. This spike is partly due to regulatory allowances for pre-program installations, with a 459% increase in battery-only purchases, primarily by existing solar households seeking energy independence and cost savings. The program’s $2.3 billion in funds may need reassessment if battery prices drop, and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has celebrated that over 10,000 participants are benefiting from substantial bill reductions (up to 90% savings), aligning with goals to lower costs and accelerate the transition.

Can Australia reach 82% renewables without C&I support?

This week, LGCs hit a record low of $11.25, a steep drop from the $30–$40 levels many commercial solar projects had factored into their business cases only 12 months ago. For businesses with behind-the-meter solar, this means a 20% reduction in expected value, and for solar companies, it means many new projects are being put on pause and re-evaluated.

While price volatility is a feature of markets, this decline comes amid a notable shift in government support for renewables. In the past 12 months alone, we’ve seen the repeated expansion of the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) to underwrite utility-scale projects as they battle transmission and social licence hurdles, the introduction of the Guarantee of Origin bill which suggests that Renewable Energy Certificates (like LGCs) may become voluntary offsets post-2030, and a continued focus on residential incentives such as battery support through STCs. These moves have left mid-scale, behind-the-meter projects without a clear policy pathway, and with minimal messaging to drive investor certainty. Despite their clear advantages – fast deployment, reduced transmission dependency, and alignment with business energy use – behind-the-meter renewables projects in the commercial and industrial sector are feeling left out in the cold.

The LGC market once offered stable, government-backed support for clean energy, ranging from your local retail precinct to a utility-scale solar or wind farm. But today’s record-low prices raise a simple question: Can Australia afford to overlook medium-scale renewables if it wants to catch up and reach its 82% renewable target by 2030?

An LGC intervention, or broader recognition of Commercial and Industrial (C&I) renewables, is needed. If we’re serious about energy transition, we’ll need contributions from every part of the system, not just the biggest projects or the houses that are owned by voters.

Weekly Market Update | 28 July – 1 August 2025.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

After a relatively stable start to the week, as the week progressed, there were marked declines in pricing across both the spot and forward markets. With a total of more than a quarter of a million certificates trading across the week, the spot market finished the week with a 15k parcel trading at just $11.25 – a sharp decline of $1.25 against the week’s opening price of $12.50.

The forward markets fared equally poorly – with Cal 25 also plummeting to $11.25, Cal 26 slipping by $2.00 to $10.25, and Cal 27 finishing the week at just $7.85. A single trade of 15K in Cal 28 saw the price for this vintage drop by $2.10 to a meagre $5.90.

While this weak pricing lends itself to voluntary surrender of LGCs to enable organisations to cost-effectively meet their Renewable Energy aspirations, demand for certificates has been insufficient to help stabilise the dramatic falls in LGC pricing that has been experienced over the past few months. Without further intervention there is currently no clear path for a recovery in LGC pricing, which leaves organisations looking to install mid-size solar systems with few incentives to support their capital investment decisions.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

It was another choppy week in the VEECs market, with the new Rule ruling out the overwhelming majority of registered products under Activity 44 coming into effect last Friday. While just three manufacturers’ products remain on the VEU Product Registry under the activity, APs are expected to be unable to create VEECs for another 4 weeks for any installations completed after the new rule change, as the regulator updates the VEEC portal with the new calculations.

It appears the VEU is predominantly hinging creation volumes on a single activity – Activity 6 (High Efficiency Air Conditioning), as few other avenues remain open in a market that has been starved of viable options for a prolonged period.

Seemingly, there was a lack of appetite at the current level with spot bids failing to materialise, resulting in just a handful of trades – all hovering around the $96.00 mark, where it closed the week. Forwards were a little more lively with a deal struck on Wednesday at $97.00 for April 2026 in 15k, followed by another on Thursday at $96.00 for January 2027 in 10k – representing a slight downwards curve.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESC registrations fell dramatically this week, with just 13,235 certificates registered during the past 7 days. The bulk of these were attributable to commercial lighting, which made up almost 80%.

Trading on the spot market was also relatively light, with 50K certificates traded on Monday, and a further 75K on Wednesday. These trades coincided with a healthy rise in the spot price, which lifted $0.60, closing the week at $22.80.

On the forward markets trading was also light, with most of the action occurring mid-week. On Tuesday a 40K trade in February 26 saw the price for this vintage increase by $0.60 to $23.25. And on the same day 3 x 10K strips across December 25 through to February 26 traded at the same price. With registrations declining and the ESC price continuing to show upwards momentum, the market has been hesitant to lock in forwards beyond February next year.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The PRC market experienced another rollercoaster ride across the week, with prices pushing back up $3.25 during the first half of the week, before then falling back by $0.20 to finish the week at $3.05.

Volumes were relatively high, with 900K certificates traded on the spot – an increase of 27% on the same period last week.

In contrast the forward markets were very quiet, with just a single parcel of 100K trading on Wednesday at $3.10.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

ACCUs gained ground on the back of a strong momentum heading into the latter part of the week. Thursday’s action saw prices rebound to their highest point in 6 weeks, as the Spot (No Avoided Deforestation) surged to $35.75, marking a slight premium to the generic Spot at $35.55.

Human-Induced Regeneration also closed slightly higher at $35.75 after a pair of 15k trades, meanwhile, the Method-Specific markets remained quiet through the week.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

Another quiet week for STCs with no reported trade for the week. Prices remain at an all-time high with the clearing house remaining at a deficit of 3.5mil.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.