Market Update | 10 July 2026

• Record solar uptake persists but batteries slow, amidst STC reduction
• Funding for sporting clubs to invest in energy efficiency and renewable energy

Battery uptake slows following scaled-back incentives under CHB.

Following recent adjustments to the federal government’s Cheaper Home Batteries subsidy, the market has reacted with slowing volumes of installations and moving towards system sizing more in line with expectations prior to the subsidy’s introduction.

Monthly consumer battery registrations dropped by 28.3% in June compared to May, demand is rotating heavily into mid-scale 20–30 kWh systems, displacing outsized 40–50 kWh systems that had previously represented the majority of installation incentives, according to a SunWiz report.

Despite the battery cooldown, rooftop solar capacity remains in historic territory, with the first half of 2026 tracking 41% ahead of the same period last year. June saw 322 MW of new solar capacity registered, comfortably making it the strongest June on record despite a slight drop from April’s peak. The SunWiz report views this contraction as a controlled market recalibration rather than a long-term structural decline.

Game On: climate action funding for sporting clubs released.

The Australian Government has launched Game On: Teaming Up for Climate Action (formerly the Sports Clubs Energy and Climate Upgrades program), a $50 million initiative to help up to 500 community sports clubs slash power bills and withstand extreme weather.

Clubs can secure between $25,000 and $100,000 with no co-contribution required. Funding includes coverage for;

• Solar PV
• Battery storage
• Energy-efficient air conditioning
• LED lighting
• EV chargers, and
• Energy audits

Due to high demand, the Round 1 closing date has been brought forward. Applications now close on Monday, 13 July 2026.

Committees must apply via GrantConnect immediately to ensure their project is considered before funding is exhausted. Round 2 is slated for early 2027.

Weekly Market Update | 6 – 10 July 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The gains from last month’s resurgence in LGC pricing continued to erode this week, steadily trading downwards. These losses saw prices plunge below the $5.00 level for the CAL2028s and beyond, with CAL2030s trading as low as $4.30.

This week’s decline comes amidst strong selling, as the market continues to await further clarity regarding data centre obligations to purchase renewable electricity to offset non-renewable consumption for new developments.

Queensland Premier, David Crisafulli, announced in a pitch this week that his state would be the only one without requirements that data centre consumption must be sourced from renewable energy.

Should the Federal Government impose strict obligations for purchasing offsets, this is expected to not only significantly increase demand in the short-term, but also provide what many consider to be much-needed long-term market interest that is hoped to stabilise the LGC price.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

VEECs rose steadily again this week, increasing sharply on Thursday to close at $87.00, up $5.00 on Monday’s opening.

This rebound sees prices return to levels last witnessed towards the end of last month, which preceded the dip – speculated to have been caused by strong selling amidst a raft of certificate registrations which placed downwards pressure on spot trading.

This choppiness in the spot price is representative of the evaporation in forward trading, as the number of Accredited Persons (APs) driving the supply side continues to fragment.

This increased fragmentation means the number of APs able to deliver on forward trade parcels of 5,000 VEECs or more has reduced significantly, leading to increased competition in the spot market and wild volatility.

Notably, the Essential Services Commission announced further punitive action this week, banning an AP from further participation in the program and refusing the registration of approximately 45,000 VEECs due to fraudulent and misleading behaviour.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

Buying interest in ESCs returned this week, as the market continues to digest last week’s sudden announcement of the new ESS Rule. The Rule was announced on 1 July, coming into effect immediately, leading to Accredited Certificate Providers (ACPs) and platform developers scrambling to review the changes to existing activity requirements and calculations.

As the changes were introduced without any transitional timeframe, this meant material changes were introduced for consumers with installations either scheduled with deposits paid or with installations already underway.

The market stabilised this week, after last week’s sell-off, as prices returned closer to the $30.00 level, with both the spot and forwards markets transacting at $29.50, before spot traded down on Friday to close at $28.75.

While the expansion of the HVAC activities to permit the installation of multi-head split systems was welcomed, the industry is still left wondering where ESC volumes meaningful enough to satisfy targets will materialise from.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

PRCs were largely quiet, trading sideways at the $3.00 level throughout the week in both the spot and forwards markets. This is in stark contrast to the immediate drop in pricing last week, after the introduction of the new PDRS Rule, with some activities coming into immediate effect and others commencing from 1 September.

Amongst those set to be introduced later this year are BESS4 (Small & Medium Batteries) and BESS5 (Commercial & Industrial Batteries).

Support to improve the business case for batteries of this scale has been widely welcomed, with the proposed incentives slated to vastly reduce time horizons for return-on-investment.

The muted activity this week appears to reflect expectations that registration of PRCs for installations of this scale are expected to be delayed due to the requirement for all approvals to be finalised prior to registration – this includes DNSP approval, which can extend timeframes by a matter of months.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU market was fairly subdued, trading sideways to close the week where it opened at the $37.95 level. This continues a period of stability, with pricing remaining between $37.35-$38.00.

Until the ACCU Scheme Review is complete, there appears to be little on the horizon set to shake things up.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.