• • CHBP funding forecasted for exhaustion in June 2026.
  • AEMO backs solar and batteries in new forecast.
  • VEU Insulation Response to Consultation released, signalling changes to regulations.
  • LGCs continue their fall.
  • VEECs drift downwards.
  • ESCs close a step higher.
  • PRCs quiet but find support.
  • ACCUs remain stable.
  • STCs up and down as Clearing House surplus increases.

Funding for Cheaper Home Batteries Program forecasted to end in mid-2026.

The Federal Government’s hugely successful Cheaper Home Batteries scheme is facing imminent budgetary constraints, with the $2.3 billion fund projected to be exhausted by mid-2026 at the current uptake rate.

New data from SunWiz reveals that the most generous rebate tier, covering large systems 30kWh to 75kWh, is proving disproportionately popular, driving a 71% surge in sales in the segment.

Amid industry speculation that the government may curb the $18,500 maximum discount, likely by adjusting eligibility criteria, sources suggest a complete early shutdown is unlikely. Ministers had previously flagged that the scheme’s settings would be reviewed annually, in line with falling battery costs to maintain an approximate 30% cost reduction.

AEMO scales back wind forecasts, amid boosts to solar and battery energy.

Australia’s Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has scaled back its roadmap for the transition to 82% renewables by 2030, reducing its forecasts for new wind capacity and high-voltage transmission lines due to soaring costs and community opposition.

The revised draft Integrated System Plan (ISP) now relies more heavily on accelerating solar farm development, utility batteries, and household-scale energy solutions. CEO Daniel Westerman stressed that “slower progress will erode benefits to consumers”, underscoring the urgent need to accelerate key infrastructure projects like VNI West and HumeLink.

The market shift reflects the increasing affordability of solar and batteries relative to complex transmission infrastructure, underpinned by the Federal Government’s Cheaper Home Batteries Program.

Response to Consultation released for VEU Insulation.

The Essential Services Commission is set to launch a new staged ceiling insulation activity under the VEU Program, following stakeholder consultation released in August.

As a result of the stakeholder feedback, the department is considering several changes to the activity’s regulations, including;

1. Replacement of ceiling lights to allow for premises eligibility
2. Updated product requirements to comply with fire safety ratings
3. Strengthened competency and capability requirements for Accredited Persons responsible for carrying out installations
4. Staged program rollout, starting with community and public housing.

For those interested in understanding how they can get involved with accessing VEU incentives for insulation, contact Ecovantage today.

Weekly Market Update | 8 – 12 October 2025

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

LGCs descended further downwards across moderate liquidity this week, continuing December’s trend, which has seen prices fall to new lows.

There was little action to speak of early in the week before Tuesday brought some relief with support, resulting in minor gains across the Spot, CAL25 and CAL26 vintages. However, this was short-lived, as Wednesday saw steady losses throughout the day with all vintages closing down on Monday’s openings.

The question seemingly now becomes, how low can they go? With the Guarantee of Origin scheme set to commence next year but Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin (REGO) certificates pricing still unclear, it remains to be seen where the LGC market will end up as it winds down looking into 2030. The Commercial and Industrial renewables sector has seen a marked downturn in projects reaching FID due to a lack of LGC support since the slide began.

With the Guarantee of Origin (GO) Scheme commencing earlier this month and Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin (REGO) certificates slated for creation from 2026 onwards, this downwards trajectory and the resulting slowing of commercial PV rollouts may be here to stay without sufficient policy intervention.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEECs market steadily drifted downwards throughout the week, shedding $1.50 on Monday’s opening of $81.00.

These losses represent a 6.5% swing over the last fortnight, after a brief three-day rally between 24 November and 27 November saw prices surge by nearly 10% from $78.25 to $85.00. Since then, prices have consistently traded at a discount, despite monthly creation volumes falling slightly from October’s high of 609,000 certificates.

An updated assurance audit schedule was released on Thursday, with 33 Accredited Persons (APs) set to undergo an independent assurance audit in January. With the VEU’s enforcement team taking action against several APs, including three accreditation cancellations, the market is expected to keep a close eye on any further announcements.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESCs were quiet again, seeing mild gains on thin volumes. This resulted in Spot closing a shade higher at $23.00.

Monthly volumes are trending as one of the lowest in recent times, with just over 93,000 certificates registered in December. This comes as a surprise to some, given the approaching deadline of the Commercial Lighting method had been expected to result in strong short-term registration levels.

The method is due to conclude on 31 March 2026.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The PRC market was quiet, as just a handful of trades on Wednesday saw Spot close a step higher at $2.90.

With over 1 million certificates registered in November, December’s volumes are tracking a touch behind at just over 374,000 to date. BESS1 continues to dominate, despite its conclusion midway through the year, likely due to delayed audit releases.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

ACCUs were stable, returning to the $36.00 level after losing ground earlier in the week,  with prices falling as low as $35.50.

Looking ahead, there was interest in the forwards market with two December 2027 Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) parcels transacting at $38.60 and $38.50 in healthy volumes.

With the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) consulting on a new draft landfill gas method and new proposed savanna fire management methods, the market is looking forward to their anticipated release in 2026.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs ticked up and down late in the week, hovering between $39.85-$39.90, as the Clearing House surplus increased from 1.5m early in the week to over 2.5m at the time of writing.

Increased volatility could be on the horizon, as the federal government’s Cheaper Home Batteries Program (CHBP) is currently on track to exhaust its funding midway through 2026, based on current creation volumes. This has drawn commentary from the industry and beyond, signalling speculation of changes to eligibility or incentives frameworks moving forward to allow for greater program sustainability and avoid a ‘boom and bust’ model.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.