• • Renewable Transition Facing 2030 Delays

  • Commercial Solar Grinds to a Halt Amid LGC Oversupply

  • Australia Endorses New “35% by 2035” Global Electrification Target

Renewable Transition Facing 2030 Delays

Australia’s goal of reaching 82% renewable energy by 2030 is increasingly likely to be delayed until 2040, according to major industry leaders at the Australian Energy Week 2026 conference. Energy executives from APA Group and EnergyAustralia highlighted that a combination of soaring wind farm construction costs, sluggish planning approvals, and over-budget grid expansion projects are severely bottlenecking the clean energy build-out. Furthermore, global pressures – such as shifting capital due to international conflicts and surging electricity demand from AI-driven data centers – have made doubling or tripling the current rate of capital deployment a massive hurdle.

A critical roadblock remains the commercial viability of wind generation; current wholesale forward power prices of around $95/MWh fall short of the $120/MWh required to make new wind projects profitable. Compounding this issue is the plunge in Large-scale Generation Certificate (LGC) prices. Historically, LGCs provided a vital secondary revenue stream that subsidised clean energy developers and bridged the gap during low wholesale pricing cycles. With the LGC market softened due to high current supply, this financial buffer has effectively evaporated, failing to assist developers when they need it most. 

Commercial Solar Grinds to a Halt Amid LGC Oversupply

While Australia celebrates a record-breaking rooftop solar and battery boom in the residential sector, the medium-sized Commercial and Industrial (C&I) solar market has suffered a devastating 75% collapse in new power station registrations for 2026. This stark divergence is driven by structural market design: residential systems are protected by a legislated $40 STC price ceiling, whereas the LGC market – governing commercial projects over 100 kW – is plagued by cumulative oversupply that has completely eroded corporate investment confidence. Data from Ecovantage confirms that instead of investing in on-site generation to combat inflationary pressures, businesses are retreating to cheap Scope 2 offsets due to a complete regulatory vacuum. Leaving this highly efficient mid-scale sector adrift directly undermines national productivity goals and places Australia’s 82% renewable target in jeopardy. 

Read more on this piece by Aaron Jenkins (A Tale of Two Markets).

Australia Endorses New “35% by 2035” Global Electrification Target

At the UN interim climate talks in Bonn, Climate Minister Chris Bowen co-endorsed an ambitious global target to increase electricity’s share of final energy demand from 20% to 35% by 2035. Driven by Türkiye’s upcoming COP31 Presidency in partnership with Australia, this “35% by 2035” initiative aims to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels by electrifying transport, buildings, and heavy industry. This new target acts as the next logical step in building directly upon previous UN framework agreements. These include COP28 (which bound nations to triple global renewable energy capacity and transition away from fossil fuels) and COP29 (which focused on expanding energy storage, modernising grids, and mobilising $300 billion annually by 2035 for developing nations).

The electrification roadmap is heavily backed by data from the IEA (International Energy Agency) and IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). Beyond grid electrification, the broader COP31 goals under Türkiye’s Action Agenda also target a 50% reduction in global waste growth and a minimum 25% increase in building energy efficiency by 2035. While the milestone positions Australia as a key international climate negotiator, domestic advocacy groups note that the federal government must now back this global ambition with a concrete national roadmap to help local households and small businesses transition to all-electric systems.

Weekly Market Update | 18 – 22 May 2026.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The LGC spot market experienced an active week, with Tuesday and Wednesday seeing heavy volumes traded primarily in the lower $3.50 to $3.60 range, alongside occasional mid-week spikes up to $4.00. Liquidity began flattening on Thursday as large volumes steadily settled at $3.60. By Friday, the market stabilised after an active few days, with spot contracts rallying modestly to close the week higher at $4.00.

The LGC forward market saw decent mid-week liquidity, with Cal 26 contracts holding steady at the $4.00 mark across Tuesday and Wednesday alongside a minor dip to $3.50. Cal 27 contracts experienced wider volatility, fluctuating between $3.75 and $4.25 before consolidating around the $4.00 level with a large 60k volume trade on Thursday.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC spot market experienced a steady downward trend early in the week, sliding from an opening high of $87.70 on Tuesday to a low of $85.75 on Wednesday afternoon before picking back up to $86.25 by the end of the day trade. Activity softens later in the week, with Thursday and Friday seeing 2 10k parcels traded at Wednesday’s closing of $86.25. 

The VEEC forward market had a quiet week with no trades reported on Tuesday and Friday. Mid-week liquidity emerged on Wednesday as a July-27 to November-27 VEEC Strip traded at $87.45 across a total volume of 25k. Activity wrapped up on Thursday with a single, slightly softer forward trade for August-27 clearing at $86.75 in a 5k clip.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

The ESC spot market saw steady activity this week, opening on Tuesday at $30.05 on a 15k volume before ticking up to $30.25 on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday established a clear trading range, fluctuating between $30.10 and $30.25 across multiple mid-sized volumes. Ultimately, the market demonstrated strong price consistency, repeatedly pulling back to the $30.10 while retesting the $30.25 ceiling to close out the week.

The ESC forward market saw targeted activity across mid-2026 and early 2027 contracts this week, at $30.00 for several strips. On Wednesday, a 50k total volume traded flat at $30.00, split evenly across July-September 2026. The outer dates, January 2027 contract saw trades at  a premium at $30.90 on Thursday, while near-term pricing softened slightly to close out the week between $29.90 (July 2026) and $30.50 (June 2026).

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The PRC spot market held perfectly flat this week, with a steady price of $3.35 across identical 50k volume trades on both Tuesday and Wednesday. No trades reported on Thursday or Friday. Creations levels are halved from the previous week, with a total of 190k certificates created and 99% coming from residential HVAC activity. 

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU Generic spot market had a quiet start to the week with no trades reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday a 10k volume trade at $37.80 and Thursday saw a morning of buying enthusiasm and the momentum stalled with an afternoon selling pressure, causing the spot to close lower at $37.65. The market leveled out on Friday, closing the week flat at $37.80 as modest trading volumes lifted prices slightly higher. 

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

A quiet market in STCs with no trades reported for the week with prices following the previous week’s closing. The clearing house remains in a surplus of 5.5 mil. BSTCs purchased to date reaches a total of 91.6mil equivalent to $3.67bil total spending on the scheme.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.