• • NSW government set to review PDRS targets.
  • Record renewable energy share recorded in the NEM.
  • BSTCs & STCs are now available with Ecovantage.
  • LGCs continue to decline.
  • VEECs remained steady at $96.00.
  • ESCs supply hike due to the rush from ending activities news.
  • PRCs creation on the up as BESS1 submissions near.
  • ACCUs market experienced a volatile week.
  • STCs returned to a surplus after BSTC purchase by government just last week.

NSW government set to review PDRS targets.

The Peak Demand Reduction Scheme’s primary certificate-creating activity, BESS1, was suspended on 1 July 2025. This has created a risk that remaining and new activities will not be able to generate enough certificates to meet the current target. The NSW government intend to review, and potentially reduce, the 2026-27 target ahead of the 31 October 2025 deadline to mitigate the risk of participants facing penalties. The state government anticipates that the Federal government’s new Cheaper Home Batteries Program will deliver an equivalent amount of peak demand reduction capacity in NSW during this period.

Record renewable energy share recorded in the NEM.

At 12:05 PM on Monday, the share of renewables in Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) reached a new record high of 76.4%, surpassing the previous record of 75.9% set in November 2024. At the time, renewables provided 21,917 MW of the 29,215 MW total demand. Rooftop solar was the largest contributor at 43.7% of demand, with wind at 30.6%, utility solar at 15.9%, and hydro at 2.1%. Despite this, over 4.8 GW of renewable energy capacity was curtailed. This new record is expected to be broken again before the year’s end summer period.

Weekly Market Update | 8 – 12 September 2025.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The LGC spot market saw a 3.7% decline, dropping from $12.35 to a low of $11.85. After a stable start, prices fell mid-week with large volumes of certificates trading at the new, lower price points.

Meanwhile, the LGC forward market experienced significant volatility with the CAL25 and CAL26 seeing a sharp price spike before a major drop on Thursday. A partial recovery on Friday reflected the intense price fluctuations.

Two options trading of CAL27 Collar at a $7.00-$14.00 strike range and a CAL25 Put Spread at a $12.00-$8.00 strike went through this week showing indications of risk management behavior by market participants.

Another weakening in prices for LGC markets this week, with supply outperforming demand levels set by RET. While voluntary demand from frameworks such as the RE100 is expected to increase, it’s still behind the demand required to push LGCs back to its pre-2024 levels. Between this and the upcoming Guarantee of Origin (GO) Scheme, this is expected to lead to sustained periods of softened LGC pricing, resulting in project developers seeking alternative avenues for improving financial feasibility. For those based in Victoria, Solar VEECs are proving to be an increasingly reliable option for improving project returns. To understand more about Solar VEECs, please contact myself or any other member of the Account Management Team.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC spot market remained stable this week, with prices holding firm at $96.00. The market experienced minor fluctuations, with a slight dip to $95.90 before a short mid-week spike to $96.15, ultimately closing the week at its opening price.

Based on the limited trading activity this week, the VEEC forward market sentiment is cautiously optimistic for the near term, but shows a clear discount for longer-dated vintages. Near-term vintages, such as the Nov-25 and Dec-25 strips, are holding firm around $96, indicating that market participants expect current conditions to remain stable over the next year. However, contracts trading for Dec-27 and the Mar-27 to Apr-27 strip are at a noticeable discount around $95.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESC creations saw a 70% increase from the previous week, with most certificates generated from both the Commercial Lighting and SONA activities. Following the announcement of these ending, the ESC spot market saw a continuation of its price hike. Prices opened the week at $23.75, fluctuating upwards to $24.00 by mid-week and reaching a high of $24.25 before closing the week at $24.10, a 1.47% increase from opening. In the forward market, only one trade was reported – a 50,000-certificate call for Feb-26 at a premium of $1.20, with an option to strike at $27.00.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

PRCs saw a quiet start to the week, followed by an action packed mid-week, before closing with a 4% decline from the opening price of $3.03 to $2.90. This is inline with the influx of supply coming from Accredited Certificate Providers concluding BESS1 audits to meet the September 30 deadline. Creation levels have increased twofold compared to the previous week.

DCCEEW released a statement of intention that they’ll be reevaluating the PRC targets for 2026-27 due to undercreation. This change spurred market participants in the forward market pushing down prices from $2.90 softening to $2.70 by the last trade on Thursday.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU spot market experienced a volatile week, with prices for both generic and non-AD certificates initially climbing from Monday to a mid-week high of $37.90. This upward momentum was short-lived, however, as prices fell sharply on Thursday and Friday, with trades reaching a low of $37.20. The week closed with prices ending lower than where they began.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

Despite the purchase from the government last week, clearing just under 700k Battery STCs – a cumulative equivalent to $71 million from total of $2.3 billion funding – the STC market returned to its surplus status only a week later, currently sitting at 105,881 STCs.

STC spot market saw a small parcel trade at $39.85 before closing the week with a larger parcel at a high of $39.90, a market indication of non-Battery STC creations are still below targeted supply levels.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.