Market Update | 13 February 2026

• • SA Government releases REPS2: Commercial Lighting available in 2026.
  • Discussion paper for VEU Strategic Review released.
  • ESS & PDRS scheme changes webinar.
  • LGCs fall to new lows.
  • VEECs stable across thin liquidity, as forwards pick up.
  • ESCs quiet, as registration volumes continue to stall.
  • PRCs dormant, aside from a late trade on Friday.
  • ACCUs close a step lower amidst minimal market activity.
  • STCs sideways again, Clearing House remains in surplus.

REPS2 Rule is gazetted by SA Government.

In a dramatic turn of events, on Thursday, the South Australian Government’s Department of Energy and Mining released the gazetted REPS Rule for 2026-2030, including many of the Large Energy Consumer activities that had previously been removed.

While surprising, this is welcome news for the industry, after much public backlash due to the lack of a transition period and uncertainty that the previously proposed changes had introduced.

It is important to note that some activities, such as Water Heating (WH1), still require finalising and liable entities are still without their individual annual targets. However, once these final pieces are finalised, there is significant concern that the overall program targets will be quickly exhausted, with some forecasting non-priority targets being fulfilled as early as the end of this financial year.

Read more in our latest Feature> REPS2 Update. A Positive Transition.

VEU releases Strategic Review discussion paper.

On Tuesday, the discussion paper for the VEU’s Strategic Review was released and the forecasted changes are set to be discussed in a series of public forums over the following months.

The discussion paper outlines a strategic review of the Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) program to ensure its effectiveness during Victoria’s transition to net-zero by 2045. Having reached 2.4 million homes since 2009, the scheme is shifting focus from basic lighting to complex electrification, such as heat pumps.

The review evaluates the program’s legislated objectives, the greenhouse gas certificate metric, and market flexibility. Key priorities include;

1. Improving equitable access for vulnerable cohorts
2. Enhancing consumer protections, and
3. Streamlining product registration.

To read the discussion paper in full, please click here for the Engage Victoria website.

Webinar held outlining proposed ESS & PDRS changes.

In another set of policy news, this time in NSW, the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) held a webinar on Tuesday outlining the proposed changes under the upcoming Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) Rule Change.

Included in the proposed changes are changes to;

• Air conditioning and liquid chilling packages
• Commercial heat pump water heaters
• Insulation
• Fuel switching
• PIAM&V.

In a blow to those working in the commercial hot water space, one suggested change is to remove the current activity in favour of a streamlined project-based method in response to ongoing concerns regarding incentives leading to incorrect sizing, amongst other poor consumer outcomes.

In positive news for air conditioning, multi-head split systems are set to be ruled as eligible, which is hoped to allow for greater flexibility for installers when offering options to consumers, as well as driving uptake.

For more information, please contact Ecovantage.

Weekly Market Update | 9 – 13 February 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

A tough opening saw LGC prices lose ground across vintages, before marginal but steady gains stabilised the market for the remainder of the week. However, the gains were not enough to see any improvement, as prices closed lower on Monday’s opening across all vintages.

Rock bottom prices are forecasted to continue without policy intervention, as utility-scale projects continue to come online via the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), which continues to drive the increasing liquidity surplus.

While this presents an opportunity for entities seeking to purchase offsets for their Scope 2 emissions reporting, this simultaneously presents a challenge for non-utility scale projects to reach Financial Investment Decision (FID) with the expected return from LGCs failing to improve the business case.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

In an uncharacteristically stable week, the VEEC market largely trended sideways after last week’s late revival. The spot market threatened to fall below the $80.00 level through midweek trading but rallied to close even with Monday’s opening at $80.75.

In encouraging signs, the forward market picked up with a 5k/month strip across May-June 2026 agreed at $81.75, representing a 1.5% premium over the same period exchanged last week.

This upwards curve comes despite weekly VEEC creation volumes returning to just shy of 100,000 certificates after a sluggish start to the year. Should these volumes persist, liable entities will have no shortage of certificates to meet surrender obligations for 2026 and beyond, following the change in legislation which now permits greater flexibility in surrender timing.

Should this materialise, this is expected to sustain downwards pressure on the VEEC price throughout the remainder of the year and prevent a return to prices $100.00 and above.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESCs were quiet throughout the week, falling a step lower than Monday’s opening to close at $22.75.

Weekly registration volumes continue to lag, topping just 46,000 over the last 7 days. This comes despite the fast-approaching conclusion to the Commercial Lighting method at the end of next month.

With responses to the consultation for the Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) Rule Change set to close on 20 February 2026, it remains to be seen what policy mechanisms will be introduced to stimulate market activity that is currently sitting at all-time lows.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The PRC market ground to a halt this week, with just a solitary trade on Monday seeing spot traded sideways at $2.94, before a 50k parcel on Friday closed the week a step lower at $2.91.

Equally as quiet, there were no reported trades in the forwards market.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

There was minimal movement in ACCUs this week, as the Generics fell slightly to close at $36.80, with the No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) market trading at a slight premium at $36.90.

Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) saw just a single agreed parcel, trading sideways on Tuesday at $37.00.

There were no reported trades throughout the week in the forwards market.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs continued their week-to-week sideways movement, closing again at $39.60.

At the time of writing, the Clearing House surplus is healthy, sitting at just over 3.8m certificates after last week’s purchase.

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.