• • Bill relief for Victorians as Default Offer drafted.
  • NatHERS expands into existing homes.
  • LGCs hit new lows in good news for Scope 2 offset purchasers.
  • VEECs remain stable amid slowing supply.
  • ESCs quiet, as Commercial Lighting draws to a close.
  • PRCs spark to life in late-week trading.
  • ACCUs quiet but steady across thin liquidity.
  • STCs Clearing House surplus at 8m, pricing sideways again.

Victorian Default Offer (VDO) draft released.

The Essential Services Commission has released its draft decision for the 2026-27 Victorian Default Offer, proposing structural price reductions across all distribution zones.

Driven primarily by declining environmental costs, the draft suggests an average annual saving of $46.00 (3.00%) for residential households and $172.00 (5.00%) for small businesses. Designed to function as a safety net for disengaged consumers and a mandatory reference price for market comparisons, the VDO also caps charges for embedded network residents.

This recalibration is aimed at enhancing affordability while maintaining retail market stability. Public consultation concludes in April, with a final determination expected in May 2026.

Existing homes now included in NatHERS.

The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is expanding its remit to include existing homes, aimed at providing a national framework for measuring the energy performance of Australia’s established building stock. This initiative offers a standardised, data-driven rating system that enables homeowners to identify high-impact retrofitting opportunities, thereby reducing energy expenditure and enhancing thermal comfort.

By bridging the transparency gap in the real estate and finance sectors, the expansion addresses the performance gap in pre-1993 housing stock and lays the groundwork for potential mandatory disclosures.

Weekly Market Update | 9 – 13 March 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The ongoing LGC downturn continued again this week, as prices dipped after a quiet start to the week. Wednesday saw prices in later vintages plunge below the $3.00 level for the first time, with the spot market trailing closely behind – closing the week at $3.15.

Though the price of Renewable Electricity Guarantee of Origin (REGO) certificates is yet to be set, speculation continues that the ongoing downward trend is being partly driven by an expectation to tie the price of LGCs to REGOs.

These basement prices do, however, present a positive to entities seeking to offset their Scope 2 emissions.

As the wider market adjusts to Tranche 1 and 2 of Mandatory Climate Reporting and the impacts on their businesses, these effects are being passed onto downstream suppliers who are increasingly looking to balance their emissions with renewable electricity purchases.

For those interested in understanding more about this process and its implications, please contact Ecovantage.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

VEECs were uncharacteristically quiet, with initially spot drifting across thin liquidity to close the week a step lower at $82.25. The forward market was even quieter, as there were no reported trades in a shortened week, after Monday’s public holiday.

Monthly creation has slowed, relative to last month, at just under 165,000 VEECs – just shy of March’s midpoint. Should this pace continue, this would see 2026 volumes fall short of this year’s compliance target of 4.4m VEECs.

With Activity 6 continuing to represent the overwhelming majority of creation (83% of monthly creation), this is leading to industry concerns that these extreme levels of market concentration could hasten saturation, leaving few viable avenues for supply heading into 2027.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

Interest picked up in ESCs this week, resulting in spot oscillating at and below the $23.00 level.

Midweek action threatened to see it surge higher, before settling and closing at $22.90.

Thursday saw a handful of 10k forwards transacted for April, May and June 2026, all agreed above the spot rate, indicating a modest upwards curve.

Weekly ESC registrations were soft again at just over 76,000, as the expected final push for Commercial Lighting is failing to materialise.

Though tracking to surpass February’s volumes (212,000), there was a widely held expectation that the 31 March deadline would result in a strong conclusion to the Commercial Lighting method. However, this is not eventuating, with ESC volumes continuing to flag. Though the liquidity surplus remains strong, traders are begging the question – where are the ESCs going to come from?

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

After a quiet week, PRCs shot up late to close 8% higher at $3.20. This comes as monthly registrations have slowed after a bumper month in February, which clocked in at over 1.92m certificates. March, however, is down threefold, tracking towards 650,000 PRCs.

With changes on the way, via the upcoming ESS Rule Change, it is hoped that activity can be sparked once again to breathe some life into the PDRS.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

Moderate activity again this week in ACCUs, with both the Generics and Human-Induced Generation (HIRs) down and then up again to largely close where they opened.

This marks an extended period of stability for a market that experienced monthly percentage swings of 10% and above throughout the last quarter of 2025.

With demand in the voluntary market expanding, it remains to be seen whether this will outstrip supply, driving prices higher in 2027 – following the completion of the ACCU scheme review.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs remained stagnant at $39.60, as the Clearing House surplus sat at 8.16m certificates at the time of writing.

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.