Market Update | 15 May 2026

• • Ecovantage CEO Aaron Jenkins provides update on the new Guarantee Of Origin program.
  • LGCs spot price, Cal 26 & Cal 27 improve, Cal 29 & Cal 30 fall.
  • VEECs end week slightly higher.
  • ESCs continue steady upwards trend.
  • PRCs unchanged at $3.05.
  • ACCUs bounce around a little.
  • STCs rebound despite large surplus.

Navigating the new Guarantee of Origin (GO) program.

Earlier this week, the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) released a request for consultation for the new Guarantee of Origin (GO) program.

As recently announced by the CER, Ecovantage is proud to have been the first entity to create Renewable Electricity Guarantee of Origin (REGO) certificates under the program for a site we manage in NSW. Since that announcement, we have engaged in many interesting conversations and have been approached by several stakeholders with two recurring questions: Why did you do it, and are they actually worth creating?

In response to this our CEO, Aaron Jenkins, has written this opinion piece which dives into the Guarantee of Origin program and where it sits within the renewable energy certificate markets.

Weekly Market Update | 11-15 May 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

After many weeks of decline, the LGC spot price showed some signs of recovery this week. After opening the week at a lowly $2.05, multiple trades occurred on Monday peaking at $2.25. Then on Thursday a further 20k parcel traded even higher at $22.40 which represented an encouraging 17% gain across the week – albeit off a low base.

It was more of a mixed bag on the forward markets – with Cal 26 and Cal 27 finishing the week at $2.50, with respective gains of $0.25 and $0.20. In contrast Cal 29 and Cal 30 were both marked down by $0.60, completing the week at just $1.95. Cal 28 was unchanged at $2.25.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC spot price showed a minor gain in light but steady trading. Trading commenced with a small 5k parcel exchanging at $88.00, which was down $0.25 on its opening value. Then by mid-week the price bounced back to $88.40, where it remained for the rest of the week.

The forward markets also saw very light trading, which was limited to Jun 26, Jul 26, Aug 26 and Sep 26 vintages. Each of these saw relatively small parcels exchanging at $88.00, suggesting the current outlook is for price stability in the coming months.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

Only 19,104 ESC’s were registered across the past week, and almost all of these were under the Home Energy Efficiency Retrofits (HEER) program.

It is therefore not surprising that the spot market continued its steady upwards trend, finishing the week at $28.25 – which was $0.75 or 2% higher than the week’s opening price.

Most of the action occurred at the back end the week, which also saw some upwards movement on a number of the different forward vintages:

• 30k traded in Jun 26 at $28.15 – a rise of $0.40
• 30k also traded in Jul 26 – including a closing 5k trade at $28.85 which was up $0.75
• Sept 26 & Oct 26 both saw 5k parcels trading at $29.00 – respective increase of $1.30 and $1.60
• Nov 26 and Dec 26 both saw 5k trades at $30.00 – which were up $3.00 and $1.75 on their opening positions

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

There was very little activity on the PRC market during the past 7 days.

There were no trades on the spot market which remained unchanged at $3.05. The forward markets saw just a single parcel of 50k trading at $3.05, which was $0.11 higher than its previous position.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The Generic ACCU spot price bounced around this week – a healthy 110k size parcel saw the price rise as high as $38.00, before slipping back as the week progressed to close the week at $37.50.

The No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) ACCU spot also traded up a little to $37.75, before settling back to its opening positioning of $37.50 by the end of the week. On the forward market there was just a single parcel of 25k in Dec 26, which traded at $38.50 – an increase of $0.25 and a full $1.00 higher than the closing spot price.

The Human Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot showed a similar pattern, also edging up to $37.75, only to drop back again to $37.55 of the back of two trades totalling 35k.

There were no trades reported on the method Specific ACCU market.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

After opening the week at $39.55, and despite the registry continuing to show a substantial surplus of almost 11 million certificates, the STC spot price clawed its way back to $39.62, with the new price locked in with an 85k trade at the back end of the week.

The forward markets were extremely quiet, with just a single parcel of 40k STCs exchanging hands in the May 26 vintage at $36.60, which was in line with the previous trade in this vintage.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.