Market Update | 16 January 2026

• • LGCs a cost-effective alternative to GreenPower.

  • Victoria’s Gas Substitution Roadmap released.

  • Wind and battery approval sought for new TagEnergy project.

  • LGCs choppy across strong interest.

  • VEECs recover amid increasing buying.

  • ESCs drift lower, as market remains inactive.

  • PRCs largely dormant, closing higher.

  • ACCUs close lower amongst thin liquidity.

  • STCs steady, as Clearing House remains in surplus.

Historically low LGC pricing offers a strong GreenPower alternative.

The last 18 months have been challenging for the commercial and industrial solar market, looking to improve the business case for renewable electricity generation, as prices have plunged to record lows.

However, there is a silver lining for entities seeking an alternative to costly GreenPower contracts.

For a more in-depth analysis, read the Feature from Ecovantage CEO, Aaron Jenkins.

Victorian Government releases 2025 Gas Substitution Roadmap.

News this week saw the Victorian Government release their updated Gas Substitution Roadmap.
Aimed to accelerate Victoria’s transition to net-zero emissions by 2045, key reforms include:

1. Mandating that all new homes and most commercial buildings be all-electric from January 2027.

2. Requiring electric replacements for end-of-life gas hot water systems, starting March 2027.

The roadmap prioritises electrification and energy efficiency, aiming to reduce household bills by up to $2,200 annually, while promoting renewable gases – like hydrogen and biomethane – for hard-to-abate industrial sectors.

 

Supported by the extension of the VEU program to 2045, these measures hope to decarbonise the state’s gas sector while firming up energy security and affordability for households and businesses.

 

To read the Roadmap in full, please click here.

Australia’s largest wind farm owner seeking approval for wind and battery.

TagEnergy, developer of Australia’s largest wind farm, has proposed the 800 MW Goombi wind project in Queensland’s Western Downs.

The site will feature 107 turbines alongside a massive 2,400 MWh battery, set to be the largest paired with a wind facility nationally.

Seeking federal approval under the EPBC Act, TagEnergy must secure binding community benefit agreements before state planning can proceed.

Construction is slated for late 2027, with completion by 2030. Despite historical land degradation from coal seam gas and agriculture, the project includes measures to protect local threatened species and compromised ecosystems.

Weekly Market Update | 12 – 16 January 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

2026 has started with a bang in the LGC market and this renewed interest was sustained, as consistent volumes changed hands throughout the week.

Movement was choppy after a strong finish to last week, as vintages first traded down in early week action before recovering to largely close a step lower than Monday’s openings.

Appetite for trading in later vintages (2029 & 2030) has evaporated since mid-December,  aside from a pair of trades on Tuesday and Wednesday seeing agreement reached at the same pre-January levels.

This has led to speculation that liable entities are treating these later vintages as comparable to ‘options’, given the rock bottom pricing offering little room for exposure.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

A predominantly quiet week for VEECs saw spot nudge a step higher at $76.50 across thin liquidity early in the week, before late week trading gained further ground on Friday to close at $79.00.

In an encouraging sign for traders, a 5k/month forward strip for March to April 2026 was agreed at $80.00, indicating a steady upwards curve.

This potential uplift in the spot market comes with 2026 creation volumes off to a sluggish start at just over 142,000 to date – tracking 60% behind December’s monthly volumes. Air conditioning continues to dominate, representing 88% of all created certificates in January.

This month has also brought more announcements of enforcement actions against Accredited Persons (APs) and further accreditation suspensions – a reminder of the need for APs to uphold strong compliance processes reflecting the rigour of the VEU program.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESCs were again quiet, as interest in the spot market eased with prices drifting down to $22.85 on Tuesday, before closing down again at $22.75.

With Commercial Lighting’s impending closure looming, there were suggestions that January could buck the usual trend of routine inactivity. However, these have been quashed, with 2026 certificate volumes off to a modest start with just under 30,000 ESCs registered.

All certificates must be registered by 31 March this year, so any partners with any upcoming projects are urged to contact the Account Management Team as soon as possible to ensure they can processed and registered ahead of the deadline.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

PRCs remained quiet with a pair of trades on Monday bringing spot up to $2.95 the only action to speak of.

Registrations have been just as muted at less than 20,000 in the year-to-date.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

A subdued start to the week was livened on Thursday by some moderate trading with buyer’s making the most of strong selling, as the Generics shed value in both the spot and forwards markets. Both the spot and No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) markets lost ground to close at $36.95 and $36.85, respectively.

A flurry of trades in the forwards saw strips for February and March 2026 agreed at $37.00, down $0.60 for the former.

The Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) market remained quiet with a couple of trades bringing spot down to the $37.00 level.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

Muted early trading was brought to life on Thursday, as 2025 vintage spot STCs traded at a premium ($39.70), relative to unspecified vintages ($39.55).

The Clearing House surplus failed to swell further this week, holding steady at just shy of 6.9M certificates.

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.