Market Update | 17 April 2026

• • 2024-2025 Safeguard Mechanism data released by CER.

  • VEU backflips on additional compliance evidence for wiring work.

  • LGCs subdued, as near vintages slide.

  • VEECs nudge higher.

  • ESCs trading strong with consistent gains.

  • PRCs dormant again, trading sideways.

  • ACCUs fail to move, despite CER’s Safeguard release.

  • STCs remain constant.

Clean Energy Regulator releases 2024-2025 Safeguard Mechanism data.

On Wednesday, the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) released the data for the 2024-2025 Safeguard Mechanism.

The Safeguard Mechanism is Australia’s primary regulatory framework for industrial decarbonisation, targeting facilities exceeding 100,000 tonnes of Scope 1 emissions. Each April, the CER publishes performance data regarding facility baselines and net emissions.

The 2024–25 Safeguard Mechanism report highlighted high regulatory compliance (98.6%) and a 2.3% reduction in gross emissions. However, the 7.3% contraction in aggregate baselines has intensified transition risks, driving an increase demand for ACCUs.

Meanwhile, 6.7 million Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) were issued for outperformance, the tightening trajectories underscore an increasing reliance on external units over on-site abatement.

These insights are expected to reinforce the need for further decarbonisation for Australia’s highest emitters, as legislated targets are required to be met.

VEU withdraws proposed additional photo evidence of electrical work.

In a surprising turn of events, the Victorian regulator has announced the withdrawal of additional photo evidence requirements for its deemed hot water and air conditioning activities.

This 180 degree turn comes after the initial announcement just a short few weeks ago had proposed the addition of several geotagged photos of pre and post-installation electrical work.

Slated to be introduced as a result of on-site audits, which identified non-compliant safety switches and wiring work, the additional evidentiary requirements that were initially proposed have now been withdrawn.

Nevertheless, this serves a reminder to everyone working under the program that all installations must comply with Australian standards and on-site audits will be conducted to verify adherence to regulatory guidance.

Weekly Market Update | 13 – 17 April 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

LGCs were largely subdued across moderate liquidity, as spot and near vintages lost minor ground through the week to close down. After opening at $2.80, up $0.15 on Friday, spot traded consistently downwards to close at $2.60.

Similar losses were seen across the CAL2026 and CAL2027 vintages – both closing $0.20 below Monday’s opening at $2.95 and $2.90, respectively.

Looking further ahead, CAL2028 – CAL2030 trading remains largely subdued, as liable entities continue to treat these later vintages as speculative assets.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

After last week’s mid-week peak of $88.00 failed to persist, the spot market recovered some of the lost ground to close at $87.25, up $0.50 on Monday’s opening.

Interest in the short-forward market was apparent, with agreement reached for July, August and September 2026 all transacting around the $86.90 – $87.00 level, representing a slight downwards curve.

This recent spike from low-$80 pricing just a fortnight ago has been caused by the VEU’s recent announcement to consult on capping incentives for multi-head split systems and increasing minimum co-payments for multi-head and ducted split systems from $1,000 to $3,000. This consultation is reported to have come as a result of site audits conducted by the VEU audit and compliance team, which identified concerns of over-sizing to maximise incentives.

As the program’s primary driver of certificate creation, representing over 81% of all deemed certificate creation over the last 60 days, concerns have been raised over the industry’s ability to meet 2026 program targets – even after their 40% reduction on the previous year.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

The ESC market roared to life with plenty of interest driving strong increases in both the spot and forwards markets, bringing spot above the $27.00 level for the first time since late 2023.

Understood as the market’s initial reaction to the closure of the Commercial Lighting activity, it remains to be seen whether further gains should be expected, given the paltry levels of creation seen since the activity’s conclusion.

Just 70,000 ESCs have been registered this month, with over half of those volumes driven by  a chunky one-off registration via the Project Impact Assessment with Measurement & Verification (PIAM&V) method.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

PRCs were quiet again, as the market’s dormancy continues.

Spot held firm at $3.10 to close the week where it opened – meanwhile, action in the forward market failed to materialise.

This quietened period is expected to continue until the expansion of the battery activities are introduced, with an announcement of the legislation of the proposed changes expected in the coming months ahead.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

There were marginal gains in ACCUs across thin liquidity, with prices lifting throughout the week to close a step higher. Action was limited to the Generics, trading higher $36.65, meanwhile the No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) market retained its premium at $36.80.

Wednesday’s release of Safeguard Mechanism data failed to move the market, aligning with existing market expectations.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs remained constant, as the Clearing House surplus hovered at just over 8m certificates.

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.