Market Update | 17 July 2026

• NSW Scheme changes for Air Conditioning and batteries
• Low VPP uptake prompts regulator rethink
• Certificate Market Prices & Commentary

NSW ESS & PDRS Rule Changes Effective 1 July.

1. Air Conditioning for Residential & Small Business Updates

Air conditioner activities have now been expanded to include multi-split systems. The process for adding multi-splits and calculating the associated certificates on our compliance platforms will be up and running very soon.

Minimum co-payments from 1 July:

• • $550 (incl. GST) per unit – single splits
  • $1,100 (incl. GST) per unit – multi-splits and ducted systems up to 15kW capacity
  • $2,200 (incl. GST) per unit – multi-splits and ducted systems 15kW ≤ 20kW capacity
  • $3,300 (incl. GST) per unit multi-splits and ducted systems 20kW+ capacity

If your customers are looking to use the NSW Home Energy Saver interest-free loan, then the loan can only be used as proof of the above co-payments once their cumulated repayments have met the specified co-payment amounts. Installers who prefer to receive rebates quickly may want to consider requesting the co-payment amount be paid directly to them, with the balance to be financed through a loan.

Certificate caps for multi-splits:

• • 90 ESCs in Cold Climate Zones
  • 70 ESCs in Average or Hot Climate Zones.

2. Air Conditioning for Commercial Premises Updates

For larger commercial premises multi-split air conditioning systems and large air conditioners above 65kWh are now eligible. New or replacement air conditioners must have at least 30kW of cooling capacity to be eligible.

3. NSW PDRS BESS Updates

IPART, the NSW PDRS scheme administrator, held an information session on its recently announced incentives for new BESS installations.

Proposed changes are set to commence on 1 September and include batteries for:

• • Apartment Buildings (BESS3)
  • Small and medium sized businesses (BESS4)
  • Commercial and Industrial installations (BESS5)

We are currently developing systems and training for these new and exciting activities. Further information on the PDRS BESS activities, including FAQs and a BESS PRC calculator, can be found here.

Low Uptake of VPPs Prompts Regulator Rethink.

A recent article by Kate Burgess from The Energy highlighted that according to the ACCC’s biannual Electricity Inquiry Report, the government’s Cheaper Home Battery Program (CHBP) helped solar and battery households save up to 63% on annual electricity bills in the second half of 2025. Since starting in July 2025, the CHBP has added 6.7GWh of battery storage, which, alongside 11.2GWh of grid-scale storage, shifted renewable energy use to peak hours and has reduced coal and gas reliance.

While households enrolled in a virtual power plant (VPP) saved the most, with median annual bills up to $1,100 lower than non-solar/battery homes, only 24 percent of eligible consumers have opted in.

Burgess indicated that AEMO forecasts that raising VPP participation to 53% by 2050 could avoid $7.2 billion in slow and expensive infrastructure investments. NSW currently leads in VPP uptake and battery ownership, followed by SA, Southeast QLD, and VIC.

To help overcome the low adoption rates, the ACCC recommends introducing VPP comparison tools to enable easy comparison across plans, improving battery interoperability with the available VPP plans, and expanding energy ombudsman schemes to include battery manufacturers for external dispute resolutions.

Weekly Market Update | 13 – 17 July 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

After opening the week at $5.25 steady trading saw the LGC spot price slip back to $4.60, before then regaining some of the lost ground to round off the week at $5.05. This was a 4% fall week-on-week, and is well down $8.00+ spot price that was recorded just 3 weeks ago.

Volatility was also seen on the markets – Cal 26, 27 and 28 all fell during the first half of the week, then showing some marked gains midweek before settling back on the last day’s trading.

Despite this volatility Cal 29 (up $0.40 to $5.15) and Cal 30 (up $0.85) both finished the week with reasonably healthy gains.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC spot price experienced some noticeable swings during the latest trading week. Monday proved to be the most active and volatile day on the spot market, which saw parcels trade down as low as $81.00, which was $6.00 lower than the day’s opening price, before then bouncing back up to close the day at $84.50. On Wednesday the spot nudged back up to $24.65, before settling back to close the week with a 5k trade at $84.60.

The forward markets were relatively quiet, with August 26 featuring most prominently. After initially slipping back to $83.00, a mid-week 15k trade saw the price rise to $84.75, before then slipping back to close the week at $84,25 – an increase of $1.00 week-on-week. A 10k trade in September 26 on Thursday at $84.25 saw the price drop back into line with August 26.

On the longer term horizon, a 35k parcel in April 28 exchanged at $85.50 – which was the first trade recorded in this vintage.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

A lowly 10,348 ESC’s were registered over the past 7-days, with most of these, 87% overall, created through the Home Energy Efficiency Retrofits (HEER) scheme.

It was a bumpy ride on the ESC spot market; after opening the week at $29.50, the first trading day, which was by far the most active, saw an 8k parcel trade as low as $28.55, before the spot then recovered to close the day at $29.00. The following day saw the market rebound, with a 5k parcel trading as high as $29.75. As the week progressed the spot traded back down to $29.50, before finishing the week with a single 5k parcel at $29.00.

The forward markets were exceptionally quiet, with a single mid week 10K trade in July 26 at $29.50, which was $0.50 lower than its previous position.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

After a quiet start to the week, Wednesday and Thursday saw 150k certificates traded on the spot on both days, all trading at $3.05 – which was $0.05 higher than last week’s closing position.

With the recently announced commercial battery programmes scheduled to commence on September 1, it will be interesting to see if this will put downward pressure on the PRC price due the likely uplift in PRC creation.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

While there was some activity on the ACCU market this week, most notably on the ACCU No Avoided Deforestation certificates (ACCU No Ads), prices remained steady around or fractionally below the $38.00 mark.

In total 400k certificates traded in ACCU No ads, with all trades between $37.90 and $38.00.

The forward markets were also quiet -with the only trade of note being a 60k parcel at $37.87 in March 27 Generic ACCU’s.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

The STC clearing house continues to be in surplus by just over 1.9 million certificates, so sellers continue to outnumber buyers. However the surplus volume remains considerably lower than the 10 million plus values we saw just a few weeks ago.

In a week of very light trading, a small closing parcel of 6k saw the spot price nudge back by $0.05 to finish the week at $39.85.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.