Market Update | 2 April 2026

• • Solar panel waste expected to go through the roof

  • Changes to Victorian Energy Upgrades program

  • Victorian government announces new ceiling insulation activity

  • LGCs spot price softens again

  • VEECs show healthy gains

  • ESCs rise as commercial lighting exits the NSW Energy Savings Scheme 

  • PRCs unchanged remaining high

  • ACCUs mixed results  

  • STCs spot steady despite growing surplus

Solar panel waste predicted to go through the roof

A recent article published by the ABC, suggests Australia is facing a growing solar panel waste issue, with official forecasts suggesting annual waste will hit 30,000 tonnes by 2030. Others are predicting the amount could be as high as 90,000 tonnes per year, exacerbated by shortening panel lifespans as people discard their old panels in search of cheaper, more efficient new panels.

In response, a $24.7 million pilot has been announced by the Federal Government to collect data through processing up to 250,000 panels and help develop a national recycling plan. Key challenges include difficult logistics (panels are heavy, fragile, and must be intact for recycling), lack of a national waste dataset, and uneconomic re-use. 

The pilot, which will also address toxicity and safety issues, is expected to commence before the end of the financial year and run for approx.12 to 18 months.

Changes to Victorian Energy Upgrade (VEU) commercial and industrial heat pump water and high efficiency motor activities

The Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action released the updated Victorian Energy Upgrades Specifications 2018 – v 22.0, effective 31 March 2026.

Key changes to the program include:

• Updates to commercial and industrial heat pump water heater activity (Activity 44) regarding product rules, co-payments, and incentives.
• Changes to the high-efficiency motors activity (Activity 31) to align with updated Greenhouse and Energy Minimum Standards (GEMS).
• Updates to commission guides and forms.

Scheme participants must use the new Activity 44 VEEC assignment form for activities completed from 14 April 2026.

The VEU Registry is currently being updated so during the next 3 weeks or so Activity 44 upgrades completed on or after 31 March 2026 cannot be submitted. Submissions for upgrades completed before 31 March 2026 are unaffected. 

Further details about these changes can be found via this link.

Changes to Victorian Energy Upgrade (VEU) commercial and industrial heat pump water and high efficiency motor activities

The Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action released the updated Victorian Energy Upgrades Specifications 2018 – v 22.0, effective 31 March 2026.

Key changes to the program include:

• Updates to commercial and industrial heat pump water heater activity (Activity 44) regarding product rules, co-payments, and incentives.
• Changes to the high-efficiency motors activity (Activity 31) to align with updated Greenhouse and Energy Minimum Standards (GEMS).
• Updates to commission guides and forms.

Scheme participants must use the new Activity 44 VEEC assignment form for activities completed from 14 April 2026.

The VEU Registry is currently being updated so during the next 3 weeks or so Activity 44 upgrades completed on or after 31 March 2026 cannot be submitted. Submissions for upgrades completed before 31 March 2026 are unaffected. 

Further details about these changes can be found via this link.

Victorian government announces new ceiling insulation activity

The Energy Savings Industry Association (ESIA), which Ecovantage is an active member of, has praised the Victorian Government’s addition of ceiling insulation to the Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) program, calling it a major step for households, installers, and energy bill relief.

The new discount starts 14 April for social housing residents, expanding to all eligible Victorian homes with low or no ceiling insulation from 1 October 2026. ESIA also welcomed the focus on safety, training, and product standards.

Minister D’Ambrosio will address industry stakeholders at the ESIA Seminar in Melbourne on 21 May 2026 to detail VEU priorities and the role of efficiency in Victoria’s clean energy transition. 

Weekly Market Update | 16-20 March 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

It was another testing week for sellers on the LGC market.

After opening the week at $3.05, the spot market bounced around across multiple trades – from a low of $2.90 to a high of $3.15. The week ended with parcels of 20K and 15k both trading at $2.95, which represented a decline of $0.10 (or just over 3%) across the week.

The forward markets were also a little bumpy – however the only vintage that showed a change across the full week was Cal 28, which finished down $0.05 to $3.25. 

The LGC price is currently remarkably similar across all vintages – with values ranging between $2.95 and $3.35.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

After a steady start to the week, which saw the spot trading consistently at $84.00, on Wednesday the spot market sparked to life, with positive gains across multiple small certificate parcels. This culminated in a 5k parcel trading at $86.50, which was a healthy $2.85 higher than the week’s opening price.

There were also some positive gains in the forward markets, with marked improvements noted across April 26, which rose by $2.00 to close at $86.00, and May 26 and June 26, which both finished the week with trades at $86.80. The largest gain was in December 26, which saw a small 5k trade at $90, which was $6.00 higher than the previous trade in this vintage.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

With this week marking the final deadline for registering ESC’s under Commercial Lighting activity, registrations leapt to just over half a million certificates over the past 4 days. More than 90% of these ESCs (464,902) were for the commercial lighting activity, with the balance coming almost entirely from the Home Energy Efficiency Retrofits (HEER) program.

Commercial lighting has underpinned the NSW scheme for more than a decade. Coinciding with its sunset, the spot price jumped by more than 4% to finish the week at $24.50.

There were also gains on the forward markets, notably on Wednesday, with 10k in June 2026 trading at $25.00, 25k in August 2026 at $25.10 and a further 10k in July 2026 trading at $25.15.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The PRCs market was relatively quiet, only picking up toward the second half of the week. 

The spot price saw minor fluctuation, though opened and closed the week at $3.20.

The forward markets remain quite varied – with the most recent trades agreed in mid-March for the periods of July, August, September and November 2026, all coming in at $3.30.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU spot market traded in a “U” curve during the latest period – commencing the week at $36.40, before two parcels totalling 75k certificates traded down to $36.15, then recovering on Wednesday with a 10k parcel completing the week back at $36.40.

The “No AD” spot showed a similar pattern, finishing the week at $36.30, which was a shade lower than the opening figure.

The spot (HIR) was relatively quiet – with the most notable activity being a 15k and 20k parcel both trading at $36.15 on Monday, which was a decline of $0.45 on its previous position.

No trades were reported for the method specific ACCUs market.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

Despite the STC clearing house surplus now approaching 10 million certificates, the STC prices were little changed during another relatively light trading week. 

Despite early signs of softening – with two 10k parcels trading down by $0.03 at $39.62, the shortened week finished with a solid 50K trade at the week’s opening price of $39.65.

On the forward markets there was a single, albeit relatively large 100K trade in May 2026 at $39.60, which was $0.02 lower than the previous trade in this vintage.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.