Market Update | 20 February 2026

• • REPS2 changes recapped.
  • Renewable generation and storage added in record levels.
  • LGCs basement prices offer Greenpower alternative.
  • VEECs lively amongst strong interest.
  • ESCs drift downwards, as activity dries up.
  • PRCs close a step higher.
  • ACCUs quiet across thin liquidity.
  • STCs sideways, as Clearing House surplus increases week-on-week.

REPS2 Recap.

As flagged in last week’s edition, REPS2 was gazetted with confirmation that a suite of activities will return in 2026 – not least, Commercial Lighting.

While industry is still awaiting confirmed values for the WH1 (Residential Water Heating) activity, the Department of Energy and Mining (DEM) have confirmed the following;

• • A 75% gigajoule reduction to HC3 (Install an Efficient New Ducted Evaporative Air Conditioner) for Non-Priority (NP) customers
  • Favourable gigajoules for Priority customers under the BS1A (Install Insulation in an Uninsulated Ceiling Space) activity
  • Reintroduction of the PIAM&V DM (Commercial and Industrial Demand Savings) activity.

The Essential Services Commission of South Australia (ESCOSA) is yet to provide clarity to liable entities on their annual surrender targets, which fails to provide Accredited Certificate Providers (ACPs) their payable rates and, in turn, prevents installation companies from providing discounts to end-users.

This ongoing delay to activity is hoped to be ended soon, as industry continues to wait with bated breath. To read more on this, click here for an article from Ecovantage CEO, Aaron Jenkins.

Energy transition hastens amidst record renewable generation and storage.

In the final quarter of 2025, Australia’s renewable energy sector broke records as 2.1 GW of wind and solar capacity joined the grid.

This surge included nine major projects and a record-breaking 1 GW of battery storage, more than doubling previous quarterly highs. Renewable energy successfully supplied over half of the National Electricity Market’s power during this period.

Despite political debates and transmission hurdles, the industry remains buoyant, with nearly 13 GW of additional projects currently under construction or financially committed to stabilising the grid as coal-fired plants retire.

Weekly Market Update | 16 –  20 February 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

Healthy trading early in the week saw moderate volumes exchanged on Monday and Tuesday, as buyers indicated strong interest across vintages out to CAL28. This appetite slowed as the week progressed, which resulted in pricing largely trading at a slight discount – aside from the spot, which closed a step higher at $4.35.

While basement LGC prices continue to stall commercial and industrial project pipelines, companies are increasingly capitalising on the opportunity to offset their Scope 2 emissions, as climate-related financial disclosures obligations continue to flow downstream across industry value chains. Particularly in comparison to comparably expensive Greenpower contracts, LGCs offer a trackable and traceable way to adhere to climate reporting frameworks.

To read more, click here for a recent article from our CEO, Aaron Jenkins.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

VEECs roared back to life this week, as prices surged in both the spot and forwards markets amidst strong buying interest.

Kicking off on Tuesday, spot pricing steadily traded higher throughout the day, peaking at $83.00 before settling at $82.50 – where it remained. This comes despite monthly certificate creation volumes tracking towards 400,000 VEECs, which, if they remain constant for the remainder of the year, would see targets not only comfortably met but also a return to a healthy liquidity surplus.

This short-term spike in market appetite is speculated to have come on the back of further accreditation cancellations – this total reaching 5 in the last 12 months, along with several other accreditation suspensions, as the VEU Enforcement Taskforce continues to conduct investigations into reported non-compliance.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESCs were quiet again, as the spot market drifted downwards on early week trading to close slightly down at $22.60

This slowed market movement is expected to continue with the consultation on proposed changes to the Energy Security Safeguard closing today. Aimed to stimulate market activity in response to all-time low creation levels, it remains to be seen whether these activity amendments will sufficiently move the needle to allow program targets to be met over the coming 12-24 months.

Just 13,000 ESCs were registered over the last 7 days, as volumes fail to deliver on the expected rush ahead of the Commercial Lighting activity’s sunsetting in just over 5 weeks.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The relative dormancy seen in the PRC market continued this week, as minimal volumes transacted, seeing spot close a step higher at $2.95 and no reported forward trades.

Weekly volumes were strong at just over 1m PRCs registered over the last 7 days, on the back of a large dump by one ACP under the BESS2 activity.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

An up and down week for ACCUs saw the Generics quietly trade up, threatening to breach the $37.00 level, before settling to close at $36.85 – a slight premium on Monday’s opening. This continues a period of sustained modest trading volumes and minimal pricing movement to start the year.

As is required every three years, the ACCU Scheme is under review. Aimed to ensure public confidence in the scheme’s operation and program objectives are being met, this is a process that is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2026.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs traded sideways again across thin liquidity, closing at $39.60.

The Clearing House surplus has swelled to just over 5.7m STCs, a slight increase on the same time last week.

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.