Market Update | 24 April 2026

• • Global energy demand continues to rise, but renewables are now covering most of the growth
  • EV sales charging ahead in Australia
  • Victorian Energy Upgrade (VEU) reviewing space heating and cooling
  • LGCs continue to slide
  • VEECs experience a roller coaster week
  • ESCs edge up, maintaining upwards momentum
  • PRCs unchanged at a relatively strong level
  • ACCUs spot markets on the up
  • STCs edge back as surplus continues to grow

Global energy demand continues to rise but renewables are now covering most of the growth.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published its 2026 Global Energy Review. Here is a snapshot of some of the key findings:

• Global energy demand grew 1.3% in 2025, with low-emissions sources (ie. solar, wind, nuclear, hydropower and other renewables) led by solar PV, accounting for nearly 60% of total growth.
• The world is in the “Age of Electricity” with demand for electricity growing at double the rate of overall energy demand. US growth was high, driven by data centers, robust industrial growth and colder temperatures, while China’s slowed due to renewables and efficiency.
• There was a 20% surge in EV sales to 20 million units.
• Annual global renewable capacity additions hit 800 GW (75% solar). Battery storage capacity surged 40% to nearly 110 GW.
• Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 0.4%. Emissions fell in China and were flat in India. Advanced economies’ emissions grew faster (+0.5%) than emerging economies (+0.3%) for the first time since the 1990s, due to a cold winter and high gas prices.
• Clean energy rollouts since 2019 have avoided over 35 exajoules of annual fossil fuel demand and 3 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2025.

Energy EV sales charging ahead in Australia.

According to a recent report published by the Australian Chamber of Automotive Industries, electric vehicle (EV) sales hit a record high in March, with over 15,800 units sold, representing 14.6% of all new car sales – nearly double the figure from March 2025.

This surge appears to have been fueled by high petrol/diesel prices amid the conflicts in the Middle East.

Hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales also rose (6.7% and 18.5% respectively), while petrol and diesel sales fell significantly.

Industry figures emphasised that continued EV growth requires further investment in public charging infrastructure, especially regionally.

Interestingly, this increase in sales also coincides with a federal review of the Electric Car Discount and the potential introduction of an EV road-user charge.

Victorian Energy Upgrade (VEU) programme – space heating and cooling under review.

The Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA) is currently reviewing space heating and cooling activity (Part 6) to ensure effectiveness, deliver benefits, and expand upgrade opportunities.

They’ve released a survey to seek stakeholder feedback on:

• How the VEU program can better support the transition to electric heating/cooling.
• Opportunities and challenges within the current VEU heating and cooling activity.
• Informing potential changes to the activity, which will be consulted on later in 2026.
• Proposed changes for multi-split Reverse Cycle Air Conditioning (RCAC) system upgrades to ensure positive outcomes.

The survey closes on Wednesday 29 April 2026.

The VEU team will review all submissions to inform proposed changes, and the final decision on multi-split RCAC changes will be communicated later this year. Ecovantage will be closely monitoring any proposed changes, and will keep our partners updated on the impact of these changes on RCAC installations and the associated compliance paperwork.

Weekly Market Update | 20-24 April 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

Continuing its remarkable downward run, the LGC spot price steadily declined across the week, culminating in a 10K trade at a paltry $2.25, which was $0.35 or 13% below the week’s opening.

The forward markets also declined across the week – although interestingly none fell as low as the spot market:

• Cal 26 initially held steady before plunging by $0.55 to $2.40 on Thursday.
• Cal 27 was the most active, with 470K certificates traded in this vintage. The price slipped steadily throughout the week finishing at $2.45.
• Cal 28 saw active trading, finishing the week down $0.40 at $2.60.
• Cal 29 and 30 also traded, albeit at much lower volumes. Each of these finished the week with trades at $2.40 – which were both $0.60 lower than their respective opening values.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

It was an eventful week on the VEEC market;

The spot price climbed steadily throughout the week – peaking at $90.00 on Wednesday – which was a healthy gain of $2.75 on the week’s opening value. Then on Thursday these gains were wiped out, with trades steadily marked down throughout the day, culminating in a 5k parcel trading at $86.75, which was $0.50 lower than the week’s opening.

A similar pattern was observed across the 2026 monthly forward markets, which saw sharp gains during the first half of the week at or just below the $90.00 mark, before a correction on Thursday saw prices slip back to between $87.00 (June 26) and $88.00 (July, August, November and December 26).

The higher price trades may have had premium pricing built in due to concerns about the ability of some sellers to meet their future certificate obligations.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

With the dust now settling after the end of the Commercial Lighting activity, certificate registrations continued to be relatively light, with just under 40,000 ESC’s registered in the latest week. All of these registrations were under the Home Energy Efficiency Retrofits (HEER) program.

After a steady start to the week the ESC spot price slipped back on Tuesday, with 15k changing hands at $26.35 – a fall of $0.15. This decline was short lived and by Thursday a further 35k certificates were traded at $26.65, representing a net gain of $0.15 across the whole week.

The forward markets were quiet; at the end of the week a 10k parcel in May 26 traded at $26.75. And earlier in the week a 10k parcel in June 26 traded at $27.10 – an increase of $0.35 on its previous position.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The PRCs market was whisper quiet again this week

There was no activity on the spot market, hence the price remained unchanged at $3.10.

The forward markets saw a solitary parcel of 50k certificates trading in February 27 at $3.05, an increase of $0.11 vs the previous position in this vintage.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU generic spot market traded up this week – on Wednesday a 25K parcel exchanged at $37.25, which was $0.60 higher vs the week’s opening.

The “No AD” spot also traded up off the back of higher volumes;165k certificates were sold with the spot finishing the week at $37.15, which was a shade higher than the opening figure.

The spot (HIR) followed a similar pattern, albeit off the back of relatively lower volumes. An early 10K parcel at $37.25 set the tone for the week, with a further 10k rounding off the week at the same price. These trades were both $0.70 higher than the previous week.

No trades were reported for the method specific ACCUs market

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

The Clearing House surplus has increased once again, and currently stands at more than 10.5 million STC’s. This means there are currently more sellers than buyers in the market, which under normal market conditions implies downward pressure on pricing.

It is therefore not surprising that the STC price nudged back, with 178k certificates changing hands last Friday at $39.60 – a fall of $0.05 on its previous position. This price held firm for the rest of the week.

The forward markets were extremely quiet with two small parcels of 10K and 15K certificates in May 2026 also trading at $39.60.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.