Market Update | 26 June 2026

• Why falls in regulated energy prices may not result in lower energy bills for consumers
• Surging energy demand from data centres expected to be mitigated by batteries 
• Certificate Market Prices & Commentary

Falls in regulated energy prices may not result in reduced energy bills for consumers.

Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen hailed the recently announced reductions in regulated energy prices as proof that the surge in renewable energy production is successfully lowering energy costs. 

However a recent article by Angela Macdonald-Smith in the Financial Review suggested that while the Australian Energy Regulator has implemented benchmark price reductions of up to 10.7% across South Australia, Queensland, and NSW, the anticipated bill relief may not reach all consumers.

Since retailers are under no obligation to reflect these benchmark cuts in their market plans, Macdonald-Smith indicated that some households are already receiving notices of price hikes rather than savings. A primary driver of this trend is the sharp escalation in daily supply charges – reaching as high as 63% to 70%, which can effectively cancel out any minor decreases in usage rates, especially for low-consumption homes.

Despite these mixed messages and outcomes, it seems likely that consumers will continue to look for ways to reduce their energy bills through energy efficiency upgrades, the installation of solar and batteries, electrification and so on.

Surging energy demand from data centres expected to be mitigated by batteries.

Ben Potter from The Energy indicates persistent and increasingly alarming alerts suggest that a surge in data centers will impose a significant burden on the Australian power grid once they are up and running. Consumption for data centre energy usage is forecast to almost triple from about 5 terawatt hours to just under 15TWh by 2030, and increase at least fivefold to 25TWh by 2035.

To date there appears to be little concern being reflected in both short or medium term energy prices on the National Energy Market (NEM) – with Potter suggesting that these are being suppressed by the wave of large and small batteries entering the market.

For example, state governments in NSW and Victoria are expediting some very large projects through planning, including:

• 1500MW Warracknabeal Energy Park wind and battery farm
• 332MW solar and 250MW, four hour battery project in Meadow Creek, Victoria
• 1500MW Yanco Delta wind farm, with an 800MW battery
• 943MW Valley of the Winds wind farm, with a 320MW, two hour battery.

The substantial momentum in batteries, both existing lithium ion and emerging chemistries such as sodium ion, is considered to be a cause for optimism, as batteries also enhance the viability of both wind and solar farms.

Weekly Market Update | 11-15 May 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The LGC revival continued this latest week, which saw the spot price surge to $8.50, which was well above the week’s opening price of $5.00. This is now approx 4 times higher than the prices recorded just over a month ago.

Trading levels were high, with 1.15 million LGCs trading on the spot on Wednesday and Thursday alone.

The forward markets followed a similar trend, in buoyant trading the various forward vintages finished the week as follows:

• • Cal 26 – $8.50 – up by $3.40
  • Cal 27 – $8.70 – up by $3.65
  • Cal 28 – $8.00 – up by $2.85
  • Cal 29 – $6.75 – up by $1.75
  • Cal 30 – $6.75 – up by $1.65

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC spot continued to slip back during the first half of the week, finding a new floor at $81.00, which represented a decline of $4.00 week-on-week. On Tuesday 40k certificates traded at this new level, with no further trading throughout the week.

The forward markets were also quiet, with no reported trades during the past 7-days.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

Almost 100k ESCs were registered in the past week; approx 38k of these certificates were under the Measurement and Verification (PIAM&V) Method, and 35k under the Installation of High Efficiency Appliances for Businesses (IHEAB) method. Each of these categories were dominated by submissions from Shell Energy.

Most of the balance, around 21k certificates, were under the Home Energy Efficiency Retrofits (HEER) program.

The ESC spot price was unusually stable during the latest week’s trading; multiple parcels traded at $30.00, which was consistent with last week’s closing price.

Forward markets were also unchanged – with the most recent trades for the coming 12 months sitting close to or slightly higher than the current spot price.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The PRC spot price consolidated its strong recent gains, with a 50K trade on Tuesday returning the price to $3.60. Further 50k parcels traded on Wednesday and Thursday at the same price.

There was no activity to report on the forward markets. 

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The Generic ACCU spot price wobbled around this week. Parcels totalling 25k traded slightly down at $38.80 on Wednesday, before nudging back to $37.86 with a 10K parcel the following day.

The No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) spot also traded down slightly, with a 50k parcel on Thursday trading at $37.90, down $0.10. In limited activity on the forward markets, March 27 saw a 25k trade at $39.20, followed by a 75k trade at $39.00. A 25k parcel in Dec 26 also exchanged $38.60.

The Human Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot edged back slightly with 5k and 50k parcels both trading at $37.90, which was also $0.10 lower than the previous position in this market.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

The STC clearing house surplus has declined once again – falling to just over 1.6 million certificates. This is substantially lower than the 11 million surplus that was recorded just a few weeks ago.

While in recent weeks a falling surplus has coincided with some gains in the STC price, during the latest trading week the price eased back to $39.80 on Wednesday, where it remained for the rest of the week. This represented a minor decline of $0.05 across the week.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.