• • Clean Energy Regulator released Quarterly Carbon Market Reports: Renewable Energy Power Percentage Updates for LGCs & STCs

  • LGCs oversupply expected to persist

  • VEECs saw minor volatility but stabilises to opening levels

  • ESCs saw prices steady at $23.0

  • PRCs experienced a flat week

  • ACCUs saw limited activity

  • STCs holds position at $39.65

2026 Large-scale Renewable Power Percentage (RPP). 

The Minister has issued the 2026 Large-scale Renewable Power Percentage (RPP) at 16.67%, a slight dip from last year’s 17.91%. Despite a record 15.3 million voluntary surrenders in 2025 from companies chasing 100% renewable targets, supply is still outstripping demand. Key highlights include:

• • Better generation conditions led to 59.7 million LGCs created in 2025, beating the original forecast.
  • Solar LGCs jumped by 3.1 million to reach 20.1 million, while biomass saw a huge 27% increase in creations.
  • Approvals remained solid at 4 GW for the year, bolstered by a record-breaking 3 GW of solar approvals.
  • Despite an expected rise in voluntary surrenders to between 16 and 19 million units this year, the CER anticipates another record-breaking year with 64–66 million LGCs created. Consequently, the market is projected to remain in oversupply until the conclusion of the scheme in 2030

Small-scale (SRES) Updates.

The 2026 Small-scale Technology Percentage set by the Minister at 11.67% is consistent with 3.4 GW of solar PV. Key highlights include:

• • STC prices remained stable throughout 2025, hovering near the $40 cap before easing to $39.85 as the clearing house moved into surplus. 
  • Batteries:
    • The CHBP significantly exceeded early expectations in its first six months, with over 193,000 installations delivering 4.6 GWh of capacity. Remarkably, this domestic storage exceeds the combined capacity of the 12 largest large-scale batteries currently in service within the NEM.
    • Current projections for 2026 suggest between 350,000 and 520,000 battery installations (8 to 12 GWh). (Though this broad range reflects the inherent difficulty of forecasting uptake for a program still in its infancy.)
    • From 1 May 2026, a new tiered Battery STC calculation system will be introduced to ensure discounts remain appropriate and sustainable as system sizes vary. This may effectively alter end results of the forecast.
  • PV Solar:
    • Solar PV installations softened to 2.8 GW in 2025 as installers prioritised battery work, a strong Q4 rebound suggests these constraints are easing.
    • Installations are expected to recover to 3.0–3.7 GW in 2026.
  • Air Source heat pump installations moderated to 91,000 for the year in 2025, an 18% drop from 2024 numbers:
    • NSW: Experienced a sharp 64% decrease (falling from 35,000 to 13,000) due to changes in state-based scheme eligibility.
    • SA: Installations fell 15% year-on-year to roughly 3,800.
    • VIC: Remained the national leader with 52,000 installations, achieving a 4.4% increase.
    • QLD: Recorded the strongest proportional growth, with installations rising 12% to 11,000.

Weekly Market Update | 2 – 6 March 2026.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The LGC spot price saw the pressure of oversupply recently. Trades on Tuesday cleared at $3.20 and trended lower for the bulk of Wednesday with volume clearing at $3.10. Thursday saw a brief outlier trade at $3.50, and the market quickly corrected to a weekly low of $3.05 by close of business and no trades reported on Friday.

The LGC forward market experienced a week of steady volume with prices largely softening before a late rebound on Friday. Early-week activity for the CAL 26 and CAL 27 vintages hovered between $3.45 and $3.60, thoughThursday and saw CAL 27 slide to $3.30 across several trades. CAL 28 through CAL 30 remained near the $3.00 support level and the week ended on a firmer note with a Friday CAL 26 trade at $3.75.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC market steadied this week. On Tuesday several small parcels traded between $83.65 and $83.75, before mid-week seeing larger volumes trade at $83.50 on Wednesday. Trades returned to the $83.65 level on Thursday, and the week finished on a firm $83.75 back to Tuesday levels. 

VEEC forwards saw mid-week trading at a slight dip for July-26 delivery at $83.75, while appetite remained steady for strip products, with both the Aug-Sept-26 and Sept-Dec-26 strips clearing at the $84.00 mark. Friday’s session ended on a resilient note, with May-26 trades fluctuating between $83.50 and $84.00, suggesting that while there is volatility, the broader market sentiment continues to trend toward the mid-80s for 2026 vintages.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

The ESC spot market maintained a remarkably steady footing this week, with pricing firmed between $23.00 and $23.10. Tuesday traded ESCs at $23.00 before seeing a slight uptick in volume and price on Wednesday, where several larger trades changed hands at $23.10. This narrow range persisted through Thursday ultimately closing out on Friday with a final trade at the $23.00 mark. 

ESC creation levels decreased by 22% compared to last week bringing a total cumulative creation levels to 158,120 this month already exceeding creation levels of the short February month.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

A quiet week for PRCs with no activity reported on the Spot market and only one trade for Apr-26 vintage went ahead at $3.20 for a 50k on Friday. 

112,679 PRCs were created this week about 42% lower from last week’s creation levels bringing a total cumulative PRC creations to 2.7mil certificates created.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU spot market was relatively quiet this week, with activity concentrated in the first half of the week and a firming of prices around the $36.40 mark. Generic units saw consistent volume on Tuesday and Wednesday, trading within a narrow band of $36.35 to $36.40, while “No AD” parcels followed a similar trajectory to reach $36.40 by Wednesday. Despite the early momentum, no further trades were reported on Thursday and Friday.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

The STC spot market saw stability this week. With the majority of trades anchored at $39.65 Tuesday and Thursday saw high volume trades clearing at that price point. While a solitary trade at $39.60 on Wednesday represented the only minor deviation from the trend and prices returned to opening levels of $39.65 by week’s closing. No forward trades reported.

 

STC Clearing house remained in a 8.2mil surplus. With BSTC’s last purchase order on 18 March bringing the total up to 47mil STCs purchased by the government. Upcoming purchase orders are to be actioned on 23 and 25 March to be actioned twice weekly.

 

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.