Market Update | 28 August 2026

• National Energy Market facing growth challenges
• New survey highlights growing demand for energy efficient homes

National Energy Market facing growth challenges.

The National Electricity Market (NEM) faces balancing challenges as emerging demand is predicted to drive up overall energy consumption.

According to AEMO’s 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), NEM data centre consumption is projected to grow from 5 TWh (3% of grid demand) in 2025–26 to 34 TWh (13%) by 2035–36 as facilities expand to full capacity. Although over 40% of connection projects have stalled or been cancelled since 2025, 225 proposed projects still represent 67 GW in requested capacity.

Electrification remains the primary long-term driver of demand across households, transport, and industry. Residential gas-to-electric conversion, especially in cooler regions like Victoria, is projected to add 4.4 TWh by 2035–36, alongside industrial electrification in mining and smelting.

Electric Vehicle (EV) driven demand growth is also expected to continue to rise, though at a slightly slower pace than previously forecast due to lower population growth and preference among some consumers for hybrid and plug-in hybrid models over battery EVs.

New survey highlights growing demand for energy efficient homes.

A recent article by Kier Borja, from Australian Broker, asserted that while securing competitive interest rates remains vital, home buyers are now also prioritising ongoing running costs and long-term climate resilience.

The article made reference to the findings to a recent survey from Great Southern Bank, which underscored this shift, showing that 85% of Australians prefer homes with existing renewable and energy-efficient technology.

The findings showed buyers are increasingly evaluating household overheads and climate durability to protect their finances long term.

• • Over a third of respondents (35%) worry that climate risks could devalue their property over the next ten years.

  • Battery storage leads planned home additions, with 30% of households targeting installation within five years.

Borja concluded that ongoing energy price hikes have driven the urge for home upgrades. Recent Consumer Price Index figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show electricity prices jumped by as much as 22% in some regions during the 12 months to June 2026.

Energy-efficient appliances (37%) and solar panels (35%) represent the most common improvements already present in Australian residences, while 14% currently utilise battery storage systems.

Looking forwards, battery storage stands as the top upgrade planned over the next five years (30%), followed closely by energy-efficient appliances (29%) and rooftop solar (28%).

Weekly Market Update | 13 – 17 July 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The recent roller coaster ride on the LGC markets has continued during the latest trading week. On the spot market the LGC price dropped as low as $6.75, before partially recovering to finish the week at $7.25, which was still a fall of $0.50 or 7% across the 5 trading days.

The LGC forward markets were also active – with trading throughout the week across all vintages. As per the spot all the forward vintages also lost ground.

• • Cal 26 – down $0.50 to $7.50

  • Cal 27 – down $0.15 to $7.60

  • Cal 28 – down $0.15 to $7.50

  • Cal 29 – down $0.50 to $6.25

  • Cal 30 – down $0.75 to $6.00

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC spot showed some modest gains this week, improving by $0.85 to finish the week at $83.25. A total of 75k VEECs were traded, with three mid-week trades of 10K, 5K and 5K respectively locking in this new weekly high level.

Light trading across several forward vintages aligned with this spot pricing; the week opened with a 6K strip trade across each of Jan 27 through to April 27, also at $83,75, and a 15K parcel in Dec 26 traded at the same price. Then on Wednesday larger 50K parcels in each of Dec 26 and Dec 27 both traded at $83.90.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

Bucking the trend of recent weeks, ESC registrations lifted substantially during the latest trading week, with just shy of 150k certificates registered. All of these registrations were under the Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit (HEER) program.

After opening the week at $29,75, the spot price softened as the week progressed. Wednesday was the most active day, which saw the price step down across multiple trades throughout the day, culminating in a 45K parcel trading $28.75, which was a decline of $1.00 or 4% versus the week’s opening value.

The forward markets were extremely quiet, with just a single bundle of 5k trading in Sept 26 at $29.00, which was a $0.50 gain on its previous position.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The recent gains in the PRC spot price were consolidated during the latest trading week, with the spot price stabilising at $3.35. Trading was light, with a 50K parcel changing hands last Friday, and then another 100K parcel on Tuesday – each at $3.35.

On the forward markets, last Friday 60K strip trades across October 26 through to February 27 were also made at $3.35, suggesting expectations of pricing stability across the months ahead.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The generic ACCU spot market edged back this week, with a 35K parcel exchanging on Tuesday at $38.80, which was $0.20 lower than the week’s opening price.

The No Avoided Deforestation (AD) spot market was more active, with several parcels totalling 190k certificates traded across the week. The price wobbled around in a narrow range between $38.80 and $39.00, with the last trade recorded on Thursday at $38.90.

There was also a single 15K trade on the Human Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot market, at $39.80, which was a minor $0.10 decline week-on-week.

No trades were reported on any of the ACCU method specific markets, nor any of the ACCU forward markets.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

In a light trading week the STC market remained steady, with the spot price unchanged at $39.85.

On the forward markets a small parcel of 5K traded in January 27 at $39.80, which was $0.05 higher than the previous trade in this vintage.

The clearing house continues to show a surplus – currently sitting at just over 4 million certificates.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.