Market Update | 29 August 2025

• • New ESS Rule published: Commercial Lighting to end on 31 March 2026 

  • Streamlined method a highlight in update to VEU Project-Based Activities

  • CIS tender to include 1.6GW of new renewable energy for WA grid

  • LGCs slightly down across vintage

  • VEECs quiet, as new registry functionality due for launch

  • ESCs drift downwards

  • PRCs remain quiet across low monthly registration volumes

  • ACCUs fall but spot maintains $37.00 threshold

  • STCs see small volumes trading as Clearing House surplus slowly erodes

New ESS Rule published, introducing several major changes

On Friday afternoon, the much-anticipated publication of the new Energy Savings (ESS) Scheme Rule was announced.

Major changes include;

1. Commercial Lighting activity to end on 31 March 2026
2. Minimum 5-year warranty for all heat pump water heaters and $1,000 minimum co-payment for commercial heat pump water heaters
3. Refrigerated Cabinets activity reintroduced with $1,000 minimum co-payment
4. Sale of New Appliances activity to end on 30 November 2025
5. Air conditioning product lifetimes to increase from 10 to 12 years
6. Unsolicited door-knocking banned.

For a full summary of all changes, please click here to read the Position Paper.

 

VEU updates Project-Based Activities, including new streamlined method

On Tuesday, the Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) Team announced an amendment to the Victorian Energy Efficiency Target (Project-Based Activities) Regulations 2017 (the ‘PBA Regulations’), establishing four pathways for VEEC creation under PBA.

 

Perhaps most encouragingly, the amendment introduces a simplified method that aims to streamline low-risk projects by reducing measurement periods and allowing for reduced administrative burden.

 

The full list is outlined below;

1. Measurement and Verification (M&V): the M&V method is the most commonly utilised approach for PBA.
2. Specified measurement method (SMM): this new method will reduce administrative complexity for low-risk projects by adopting a prescribed approach for greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction calculations.
3. Benchmark Rating (BR): the BR method uses the National Australian Built Energy Rating System (NABERS) for commercial buildings to determine GHG reduction and will align qualification and reporting requirements with NABERS.
4. Advanced Measurement and Verification: this new approach provides the Essential Services Commission (ESC) with the ability to reduce administrative burden for skilled accredited providers with a proven track record of delivering high-quality PBA projects under the M&V method.

For more information on these changes and how it could unlock VEEC revenue for your projects, contact the Ecovantage Account Management Team today.

Labor announces CIS tenders for 1.6 gigawatts of new renewable energy

Federal Labor has initiated two new Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) tenders to bolster Western Australia’s grid. The tenders seek to procure 1.6 GW of new renewable energy capacity and 2.4 GWh of dispatchable capacity, aiming to reduce the state’s reliance on coal and gas.

The initiative is designed to attract an estimated $4 billion in private investment. The new projects are expected to generate enough solar and wind power to supply over 900,000 homes annually and provide battery storage to cover the peak load of 550,000 households for four hours.

Proposals will be evaluated on a range of criteria beyond just cost and deliverability, including their contribution to grid reliability, the strength of engagement with First Nations communities, and commitments to deliver shared benefits.

Weekly Market Update | 4 – 8 August 2025

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

LGCs were lively this week with plenty of interest in future vintages seeing volumes exchanged all the way out to 2030.

Markets traded downwards consistently throughout the week, resulting in all vintages losing ground on Monday’s opening.

While there were only minor downwards trends for spot, CAL25 and CAL26, future vintages from CAL27 and beyond all closed in single digits, representing a strong downwards curve looking ahead to the Large Renewable Energy Target’s (LRET) scheduled conclusion in 2030.

To read more about the potential implications of the lack of support for light commercial projects, click here to read an article from our CEO, Aaron Jenkins.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

VEECs were largely quiet throughout the week, trading up in a handful of early-week trades before flattening out to close up marginally at $96.35, up on Monday’s opening.

The forwards market was quiet with just a few reported trades. September 2025 traded at $96.25 in 5k, meanwhile some interesting activity on Thursday saw two 10k trades for April 2026 closing at $98.00 and $96.00. This disparity reflects an ongoing dynamic that is seeing traders discount pricing for market participants, based on credit considerations.

In pleasing news, the VEU Registry’s functionality is set to improve from 1 September. The forecasted update is expected to allow users the ability to gain insights into public VEEC register information – critical functionality that has been absent since the introduction of the new VEU Registry in June. It is hoped this will finally equip the market with the necessary information to garner insights into certificate supply and track this against surrender targets.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

In a relatively quiet week, the ESC market traded down marginally on thin liquidity with most action taking place in the spot.

Thursday saw the highest volumes traded with 110,000 spot certificates changing hands to close at $22.90.

Forwards were quiet with just a single parcel agreed at $23.30 in 7k for September 2025.

Registrations were again low at just under 69,000 across the last 7 days after strong Commercial Lighting registrations drove higher numbers the previous week.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The slowdown in PRCs continued this week, as spot slowly drifted downwards across moderate trading. Punctuated by Wednesday’s session, which saw 900,000 certificates exchanged, spot gradually lost ground throughout the week to close at $3.05.

With the end of the month approaching and registrations at just over 1 million certificates, it remains to be seen which activity will drive creation heading into 2026 and beyond. This is expected to continue to deliver strong PRC pricing, which, in conjunction with a recovered ESC price, is welcome news for HVAC companies.

If you’d like to understand more about Ecovantage’s above-market HVAC certificate pricing, reach out to our NSW Account Manager, Nick Keynes, at nick.keynes@ecovantage.com.au.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

There was little reported action in ACCUs after their recent resurgence.

Last week’s gains, which saw spot prices surge to the $37.50 mark, were short-lived as Wednesday’s session brought price drops across the Generics, No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) and Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) markets, before closing slightly higher on Friday.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

The Clearing House’s surplus continued to whittle down, falling below 240,000 certificates at the time of writing.

With the Cheaper Home Batteries Program expected to drive strong creation volumes, in conjunction with rooftop solar, the STC market could be set for price instability for the first time in years.

To understand more about Ecovantage’s easy processing and flexible pricing structures, reach out to our STC expert, Nancy Sanjoto, at nancy.sanjoto@ecovantage.com.au.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.