Market Update | 29 May 2026

• • 2026 CEC Report points to residential surge vs. commercial lags

  • Common Capital posit ESS and VEU key to electrification of ‘missing middle’

CEC’s 2026 Report highlights residential momentum vs. commercial constraints.

The Clean Energy Council’s (CEC) annual report looks back on Australia’s progress in the transition towards a renewable economy. This year’s edition presented a two-speed focus – highlighting the accelerated progress in the residential sector’s adoption of renewable energy and storage, compared to the lagging commercial and industrial renewable generation.

Residential Boom

Driven by the federal government’s Cheaper Home Batteries Program, residential batteries increased by 260%, complementing a surge in residential solar generation, which resulted in over 2.6GW of new capacity added in 2025.

C&I Faltering

Conversely, large-scale renewable project investment plummeted by 46% in 2025 with stalling capital allocation driven by planning bottlenecks, regulatory complexity, and connection queues.

This resulted in the investment of just 2.3GW of new renewable generation projects, placing 2025 amongst the lowest annual investments in added capacity in over a decade.

For access to the full report, please click here.

Common Capital finds leveraging ESS & VEU central to ‘Electrifying the Missing Middle’.

A recent report has found that leveraging the ESS and VEU should be foundational in the electrification of the portion of the market between heavy industrial emitters and residential programs.

While current policy settings have catered for the latter two segments, this has left the light commercial sector – primarily mid-tier commercial buildings, multi-unit residential blocks, and small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) – without support.

Suggestions for measures that could assist in alleviating the current constraints preventing investment in electrification include;

• • Reforms to the current emissions accounting under the VEU and ESS and simplification of the Measurement & Verification (M&V) methods

  • Adjust Scope 2 reporting requirements to reflect time-of-use electricity use
  • Develop small industrial (and commercial) sub-targets and an M&V certificate-backed revolving grant mechanism for the ESS and VEU.

For full access to the report, please click here.

Weekly Market Update | 25 – 29 May 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

LGCs roared to life in early week trading with nearly 800,000 certificates transacted across Monday and Tuesday’s sessions. There were mixed results across vintages, with strong appetite for the spot market seeing pricing jump to the $2.60 level, a slight premium on CAL2026, which held firm at $2.55. A more subdued session followed on Wednesday, with both vintages shedding to close at $2.35 and $2.50, respectively.

Looking ahead, later vintages had a mixed week, as the CAL2028s, 2029s and 2030s all oscillated around the $2.00 level before ultimately closing at $2.15, $2.10 and $2.10, respectively.

The Clean Energy Council reported this week a 46% decrease in large-scale renewables investment from 2025 to 2026 nationally, highlighting the result of ongoing concerns regarding the outdated nature of the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) targets – last set 15 years ago.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

In an uncharacteristically quiet week, VEECs failed to deliver much action, as just a handful of reported trades nudged spot higher to close at $88.85.

Continuing an ongoing theme, it was another quiet week in the forward market, which continues to present as a point of concern for Accredited Persons (APs) and liable entities alike. While prices have remained stable, relative to previous periods of volatility, the increasingly fragmented AP market has resulted in fewer APs capable of delivering the requisite volumes to deliver on forward positions. While this presents a significant challenge for liable entities reliant on forward pricing hedging to set prices for consumers, this lack of forward activity has the added effect of increasing competition in the spot market – ultimately driving prices higher.

With the VEU failing to provide clear market signals of new VEEC growth via the introduction of new activities, it appears current high VEEC pricing is set to persist throughout the remainder of the calendar year.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESCs moved higher again this week, gaining ground in both the spot and forward markets.

On the back of some strong trading on Thursday, several forward strips for the final third of 2026 were agreed at $30.25, bucking an early-week trend, which had transactions a step lower at $29.00. This represents a steady upwards curve on current spot pricing, which closed the week at $28.55 – up $0.55 on Monday’s opening.

It was another quiet week of registrations at a tick over 54,000, largely driven by the Project Impact Assessment with Measurement & Verification (PIAM&V) and Metered Baseline methods.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

PRCs remained largely dormant with just a single trade transacting – a short forward for July 2026 was agreed at $3.10.

Meanwhile in the spot market, prices remained unchanged – moving sideways throughout the week with no reported trades.

Weekly registrations sat at just over 66,000, down 68% on the previous week’s volumes.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

In what seemed to be an overarching trend across our various certificates markets, ACCUs were also largely subdued as traders failed to reach agreement throughout the week.

This left spot movement sideways, with the No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) market re-establishing parity with the generic spot at $37.60.

Elsewhere, the Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) vintage saw minor movement, losing minor ground to close a step lower at $37.55 – down $0.05 on Monday’s opening.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs were mostly steady again, sliding just $0.01 lower to close at $39.64.

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.