• • VEU release Solar incentives for C&I premises.

  • Australia’s $687.9B Renewable Energy Future: targets, storage, and CIS.

  • LGCs spot increases to $11.25.

  • VEECs decline 5.9% in response to market announcement.

  • ESCs remain stable with high market volatility.

  • PRCs steady increased to $2.92.

  • ACCUs experience high trade activity.

  • STCs in surplus – an all-time high. 

VEU release Solar incentives for C&I premises.

The VEU, in partnership with Solar Victoria, has introduced a new activity focused on Commercial and Industrial (C&I) solar installations between 30kW and 200kW. This new incentive directly targets projects in the “valley of death” – those too large for STCs but too small for the Measurement and Verification (M&V) approach – allowing retailers to stack this new rebate with Federal incentives (STCs and LGCs).

While systems installed after 29 September are eligible, applicants should note that the full scheme requirements are yet to be finalised. Please read our latest Feature for detailed information and updates.

Australia’s $687.9B Renewable Energy Future: targets, storage, and CIS.

According to IMARC Group’s latest research publication, Australia Renewable Energy Market: Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2025-2033, the market is projected to rise from $251.3 billion (USD 165.8 billion) in 2024 to $1 trillion (USD 687.9 billion) by 2033, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6%.

This massive growth is driven by the government’s 50% Renewable Energy Target, the de-risking financial support of the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), essential grid stabilisation from Snowy Hydro 2.0 and battery storage, and strategic development through Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) and Green Hydrogen initiatives.

Weekly Market Update | 8 – 12 September 2025.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The LGC spot market experienced an upward trend this week, closing with a net 4.2% increase. After opening on Tuesday at $10.80, prices steadily climbed, with minor mid-week fluctuations. The price reached $11.00 on Wednesday before continuing its ascent to close the week at $11.25.

 

The LGC forward market showed a positive and consistent upward trend this week, recovering across all major vintages. The near-term CAL 25 contract climbed from an opening around $11.00 to close at $11.50, while CAL 26 rose to $11.65. The long-dated CAL 27 contract saw the most significant shift, rising from $8.85 to close at $9.25 on strong volume.

 

LGC options trading broke a quiet week with most trades transacting on Friday. A single CAL 26 Call Spread was traded, and large volumes of CAL 26 ($10.00 strike) and CAL 27 ($8.50 strike) put options purchased – speculated to actively protect against downside risk. Some market participants may consider the recent VEU announcement to have some level of impact on the market supply of LGCs in those vintages. 

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEECs market experienced a slow increase in activity this week, but prices saw a notable decline. Following the recent Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) announcement, introducing Deemed VEECs for Solar, the market is speculating that prices will continue to soften in the coming months. Spot prices opened the week at $93.50 and consistently decreased, closing Friday at $88.00, representing a 5.9% decline for the week.

The VEU forward market experienced a sharp and significant sell-off this week, confirming a strong bearish sentiment across all vintages upon the VEU’s recent announcement. After a quiet start, prices opened Wednesday at $93.00 but saw a steep decline on Thursday. Near-term contracts, such as Oct-25, fell to as low as $88.00, while the Dec-26 contract saw prices plummet, hitting $87.00. The decline continued into Friday, with Dec-26 trading at a weekly low of $86.75 and the long-dated Mar-27 to Apr-27 strip trading at $87.25.

Only one put trade went through on Wednesday for Dec-25 VEEC at $2.50 for a 50k trade at $88.00.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESC creation levels saw a decrease of about 18% compared to last week’s volume at 86k ESCs created. Commercial lighting lead creation levels making up 80%, followed by the SONA method.

The ESC spot market experienced high volatility this week, opening with a sharp spike to $25.95 before quickly reversing course. After stabilising around $25.00 mid-week, prices saw a decisive move downwards on Thursday, with a large 50k trade clearing at $24.75. The market closed out the week with prices holding below the $25.00 level.

The ESC forward market opened around $25.00 to a high of $26.50 for the Dec-25 contract anticipating a decrease in supply level.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

PRC creation levels have doubled since last week, reaching 100,000 PRCs created. BESS1 remains the dominant creation activity, followed by HVAC. With BESS1 activity drawing to a close, the market is currently speculating on the next activity to be introduced to ensure sufficient supply is maintained.

The PRC spot market was quiet for most of the week. The only activity occurred on Wednesday, which saw significant, high-volume trading, with prices settling in the range of $2.87 to $2.92. 

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU Generic spot market experienced a clear upward trend throughout the week, recovering strongly from an early-week slump. Prices opened on Monday with a decline, trading down to a low of $36.80. However, the market stabilised around the $37.00 mark on Tuesday before seeing consistent daily gains. Buying pressure increased significantly from Wednesday through Friday, pushing the price to a weekly high of $37.75 for both standard and No AD certificates.

The forward market saw a quiet week with only two trades trending upwards going ahead for Apr-26 vintages traded from $37.60 to $37.90.

The ACCU HIR saw a 1.7% increase from opening trades on Tuesday at $37.00. Trades continued to climb throughout the week at different parcel sizes before closing the week at $37.60 with a 5k trade on Friday.
Only a single Spot trade for Method-Specific ACCUs (Savannah Burning) traded at $37.50 in 5k on Wednesday.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

The STC market was quiet this week, with the Clearing House holding a surplus of 18,000 STCs. This quiet period follows the government’s recent purchase of 2 million STCs last week, which brought the total spending on Battery STCs (BSTCs) to approximately 11.7% of the overall $2.3 billion government budget.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.