Market Update | 31 October 2025

• • All Energy 2025 wrapped.

  • PDRS targets reduced for 2026-2027.

  • Deemed Solar VEECs compliance requirements scheduled for release.

  • New stratas, hotels in CoS to be all-electric.

  • LGCs soften again.

  • VEECs trend even further down.

  • ESCs stable.

  • PRCs drop on the back of PDRS target reduction.

  • ACCUs quiet across thin liquidity.

  • STCs Clearing House remains in deficit.

All Energy 2025 wrapped.

Another year, another huge couple of days for the industry, as All Energy 2025 is wrapped.

The annual event, spanning everything energy-related, saw speakers from around the country take the stage. This included our CEO, Aaron Jenkins, and our General Manager, Katie Tebbatt, who spoke on the role of energy certificate programs in the decarbonisation of two critical industries – manufacturing and agriculture.

A hot topic of conversation that continually surfaced across speaking sessions on both days was the increased focus on the orchestration of our energy sources to facilitate grid stability as we transition towards a renewable future. State programs incentivising the uptake of Virtual Power Plant (VPP) contracts for battery consumers are experiencing huge growth, as the federal government’s Cheaper Home Batteries Program continues to make waves.

South Australian readers are reminded of the opportunity for consumers to make substantial claims under the VPP1 REPS activity.

2026-2027 Peak Demand Reduction Scheme targets reduced.

Earlier today, it was announced that PDRS targets have been reduced for the 2026-2027 compliance years to 0.5%.

This aligns targets with initial targets set when the the scheme was first introduced in the 2022-2023 compliance year.

Aimed to avoid risking a shortage of certificates and penalties for scheme participants, the  reduced targets reflect the current lack of viable activities, following the consecutive suspensions of the Commercial Hot Water (IHEAB F16) and Battery (BESS1) activities.

For further information on the reduction to targets, please click here.

Solar VEECs (Activity 47) evidence requirements expected for release.

In late September, the VEU announced their newest activity, incentivising certificate creation for solar systems between 30 and 200kW.

While Scheme Participants could commence installations from 29 September, evidentiary requirements have not been confirmed and approved Accredited Providers (APs) have been unable to create VEECs while the VEU Registry is updated. This is expected to change within the next fortnight, as draft regulations are finalised and the activity is set for release on the Registry.

To keep up-to-date with the latest news, please click here to view Ecovantage’s live updates page. For anyone in need of assistance with quoting, contact the Ecovantage Account Management Team today.

City of Sydney new stratas go all-electric.

The City of Sydney Council has mandated all-electric provisions for new residential and large commercial buildings, effective from 1 January 2026.

This move, driven by widespread support, builds on earlier indoor gas restrictions. The phased rollout requires new residential buildings’ indoor appliances to be all-electric from 1 January 2026, expanding to outdoor gas appliances and new large commercial properties from 1 January 2027.

The policy is expected to:

• Deliver household energy savings of approximately $626 a year.
• Improve public health by mitigating pollutants from gas cooktops.

The Council views electrification as a logical step to counter the environmental, financial, and health risks associated with fossil fuel dependence.

This news comes following the recent introduction of changes to laws, requiring all NSW stratas to consider sustainability in their AGM agenda items. For further information on this, including options for complying with these new regulations, please click here.

Weekly Market Update | 27 – 31 October 2025

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

LGCs were volatile again this week, but largely closed down from Monday’s opening prices across vintages on low to moderate volumes.

Early week trading sent prices downwards, as all vintages entered single digits, before Thursday brought some mild recovery, which brought both Spot and CAL2025 vintages back above the $10.00 level, where they remained throughout the rest of the week.

While this ongoing softening in LGC prices presents challenges, it continues to highlight the importance of retaining flexibility when managing certificate creation.

To read more about the options Ecovantage can provide when managing your LGCs, please click here.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

In another tough week for VEECs, they continued their downwards trajectory with Spot plunging to its lowest point since June 2023, closing at $80.00.

Ongoing strong creation volumes, which are forecasted to continue with the upcoming addition of the deemed solar activity, combined with reductions in targets for 2026 and 2027, are driving prices downwards after a sustained period in the $90.00-$100.00 range.

This bearish sentiment was also reflected in the forwards market, with prices consistently agreed below spot, representing a downwards curve heading into the new year. A large 50k parcel for December 2026 at $80.50 transacted on Thursday – notable, given the relative rarity of parcels of this size finding agreement so far in advance.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

ESCs largely traded sideways throughout the week, finding moderate support at $24.75, before closing the week a step higher at $24.85.

At just under 156,000 certificates, monthly registrations are down significantly, after consecutive months above the 300,000 mark. Over the short term, these volumes are expected to increase, as ACPs look to register the last of their Commercial Lighting ESCs ahead of the 31 March 2026 deadline.

Ecovantage reminds their partners of the importance to submit their work as soon as possible to ensure timely audit approval and registration – for further information on Ecovantage submission deadlines, please reach out to your Account Manager.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

Until Friday’s announcement of reduction in program targets, it was a particularly quiet week in PRCs, as markets stalled with a solitary Spot trade agreed on Monday at $2.86, representing the entire week’s action. Following the announcement, Spot dropped sharply to close at $2.60.

Monthly volumes fell away at just over 510,000 certificates, a near-75% decrease on September’s volumes, which threatened to breach the 2.5m level.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

ACCUs were largely quiet across relatively low liquidity, as late-week action saw prices rebound to close marginally higher on Monday’s openings.

There is little to separate the Generics, HIR and No Avoided Deforestation (AD) markets, with the latter reflecting a slight premium ($0.10), closing at $38.50.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs remained quiet, with the Clearing House in deficit throughout the week

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.