• • NSW Big Impact Rule Change Sees Commercial Lighting End March 2026.
  • LGCs see routine minor fluctuations.
  • VEECs continue to see support at historic high levels amid below-target program creation.
  • ESCs maintain the ground gained late last week following Rule Change announcement.
  • PRCs have minor softening in the spot with moderate volumes exchanged.
  • ACCUs await the new Certificate and Unit Registry to retire ANREU.
  • STCs stay in a clearing house surplus before next Government purchases.

NSW Big Impact Rule Change Sees Commercial Lighting End March 2026.

Last week, the NSW Government released significant rule changes to the Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) and Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS). Here is a summary of all key changes, timelines and what they mean for the market:

Key highlights

• Commercial Lighting set to end 
  The commercial lighting method will end 31 March 2026, with installs needing to be completed and have ESCs registered by this date.
• Unsolicited door‑knocking banned
  From 12 September 2025, both schemes prohibit unsolicited door‑knocking to market energy efficiency and demand‑reduction upgrades, boosting consumer protection and fairness. Telemarketing remains permitted under ACL regulations.
• Increase to Air Conditioning ESCs and PRCs by 20%
  The lifetime used in will increase from 10 to 12 years, aligning with ATO depreciation and the VEU program, causing a 20% uplift to the volume of ESCs and PRCs created.
• Increase in incentive for electrification delayed until next consultation.
• Copayment increased from $200 to $1000 for commercial heat pumps and refrigerated display cabinets from 12 September.
• Product approvals no longer required for Public lighting upgrades.
• Gas efficiency methods set to end 30 June 2026.
• Sale of New Appliances Method (SONA) set to end 30 November 2025.

What does this mean?

These changes have a series of impacts on the market, suppliers, installers and consumers. Commercial Lighting has historically been (and still is) the primary market share of ESCs created within the program. While an uplift in air conditioning ESCs is positive for the market, the overall reduction of creation sources leaves a question as to where market supply will be sourced from in the coming year.

Weekly Market Update | 1 – 5 September 2025.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

In line with the market’s routine movement over recent weeks, the LGC spot saw minor fluctuation before settling $0.10 below Monday’s opening. The volatility in the forward markets was elevated slightly by comparison, with Cal26 seeing a $0.40 gain and Cal30 experiencing a $0.25 decline. While the market’s supply continues to outstrip demand, and voluntary demand grows at a below-forecast pace, the unknown impact of the REGO programs introduction is fast approaching. The program is forecast to launch later this year alongside the new Certificates and Units Registry, which will facilitate the time-based RECs. It remains to be seen whether access to RECs with granular hourly data attached will increase voluntary procurement and surrender past the current level of growth.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

Sitting at a relatively stable position and continuing recent high, the VEEC spot market saw a gentle softening to $96.00, down from $96.35 at the week’s opening. In stark contrast to LGCs, the VEEC market continues to see creation below the current and upcoming target levels. This price high is creating a ripe environment for residential and SME upgrades such as air conditioning and hot water. Many large C&I upgrades are also reaping the benefits of high prices, which have gone a long way to offsetting the last emissions factor crop.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

The NSW ESCs spot saw sharp increases towards the end of last week following the announcement that the commercial lighting method will end on 31 March 2026. These jumps were predominantly in the forward markets, though the spot saw further gains this week. Opening the week at $22.90 it rose to a supported level of $23.75. While this announcement has left a large gap in the potential methods for ESC supply, it is also likely to give way to a ‘rush’ of projects being completed over the coming 6 months.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

Remaining strong above $3.00, the PRC spot saw a minor softening of $0.02 over the week to settle at $3.03. The market continues to see limited creation in a post battery environment. However, the NSW Government’s announcement this week will result in an additional 20% PRCs (and ESCs) created for air conditioning upgrades. This lift in support represents a sensible increase that is likely to increase to accessibility and affordability of both new and replacement air conditioners – though does not create an over incentivisation situation.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

Further lifts in both the HIR and Generic spot markets this week saw both settle above $37.00. The market is awaiting the release of the new Units and Certificates Registry later this year which will see the retirement of the ANREU portal. The aim of this registry is not only to facilitate the GO/REGO program, but to provide a more transparent public registry.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

We are just shy of two months out from the next STC surrender deadline, and are concurrently awaiting the next government STC purchases to support the Cheaper Home Batteries Program (CHBP). The clearing house is in a surplus of 299k at the time of writing. The non-battery STC market is currently creating below-target levels which would likely see the clearing house in a deficit if battery STCs were purchased in an equivalent volume. The government purchase intervals of STCs for the CHBP are slated to be in frequent intervals, however, until these intervals become apparent there is a level of uncertainty within the market. Most installers are choosing to process STCs through REC agents to reduce the cashflow burden of waiting for the clearning house to drop into deficit.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.