• • AEMO Quarterly Report Shows Major Achievement for Renewable Energy Australia’s Grid.
  • Australia’s Largest Commercial Battery Project to be Built in NSW.
  • LGCs remained in a soft decline.
  • VEECs recovers to $80.00.
  • ESCs saw a quiet start to the week.
  • PRCs marginally positive this week.
  • ACCUs trended slightly lower.
  • STCs v25s at an all time high nearing Q4 surrender period.

AEMO Quarterly Report Shows Major Achievement for Renewable Energy in the Grid.

Australia’s energy transition reached a “landmark moment” in the final quarter of 2025, as renewables and storage supplied more than half (51%) of the National Electricity Market’s (NEM) energy needs for the first time. According to AEMO’s latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report, this record-breaking generation drove wholesale electricity prices down by 44% year-on-year to an average of $50/MWh.

The shift was fueled by a 29% surge in wind generation and the near-tripling of battery storage output, supported by 3,796MW of new capacity, which significantly reduced reliance on high-cost gas and coal, the latter of which fell to an all-time quarterly low. Even Western Australia saw a historic peak, with renewable supply hitting 91.1% late in the quarter, underscoring a nationwide trend where sustained clean energy investment is placing permanent downward pressure on wholesale power costs.

Australia’s Largest Commercial Battery Project to be Built in NSW.

Octopus Australia has solidified its position as a major clean energy investor by acquiring two significant projects: the 1.2GW/4.8GWh Hanworth Battery in NSW – set to be the nation’s largest, and the Dunmore Solar and Battery project in Queensland, which pairs a 300MW solar farm with 300MWh of storage.

Acquired from Enervest and Samsung C&T respectively, these projects are part of Octopus’s strategic “portfolio” model designed to replace aging coal plants with firmed renewables. CEO Sam Reynolds emphasized that while other investors are retreating, Octopus is moving forward to deliver reliable, year-round power, helping to secure low-emissions energy at stable prices for over half a million homes.

Weekly Market Update | 2 – 6 February 2026.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The LGC spot market showed a marginal decline this week. With the surrender period happening in a week’s time, the market shows a rally of trades. The week opened at $5.35 on Monday and saw a continuous decrease reaching $4.25 by the close of mid week, before a correction on Friday reaching $4.65 before close.

The LGC forward market mirrors spot, with prices for mid-term vintages like CAL 27 and CAL 28 breaking lower. CAL 26 saw a descent from $5.65 on Monday to a mid-week low of $4.40 before a partial recovery to end the week near $4.75. Meanwhile, longer-dated contracts remained bearish, with CAL 28 hitting a low of $3.75.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC spot market saw a slight correction this week, retreating from Monday’s peak of $81.00. While VEECs saw a strong start to the week, prices softened by Wednesday and Thursday, finding a temporary floor around the $79.50 mark before seeing a marginal recovery on Friday to close just under $80.00.

The VEEC forward market saw persistence this week, with prices hovering around $80.00. After a quiet start, we saw some action on Thursday across 26 strips, mostly trading in between high $75 to $80. By Friday, the mood shifted more positively, with a large 35k strip for Dec26 and Jan27 jumping up to $81.00.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

The ESC spot market saw a quiet start to the week but saw momentum by Thursday and Friday. After opening at $22.85 on Tuesday, prices pushed upward to a new high of $23.00 on Thursday, before eventually peaking at $23.25 by Friday’s close.

The ESC forward market saw limited activity this week, with trading mostly happening in the mid-week and Friday sessions. Prices remained relatively stable, with an April-June 2026 strip trading at $23.15 on Wednesday, followed by a slight uptick on Friday for March 2026 vintages at $23.25.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The PRC spot market saw a marginally positive outlook this week. Opening on Monday with a 50k trade at $2.65 followed by a quiet mid week. Prices jumped with a 80k trade on Thursday to $2.95 and closed the week strong at $3.00 for a 25k parcel.

Only one forward trade went through for Mar-Apr26 PRC Strip trade at 150k per month at $2.85.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU market trended slightly lower this week, with both Generic and No AD units seeing a gradual price softening. Monday’s opening highs of $37.75–$38.00 gave way to mid-week lows around $37.15 as selling pressure increased. However, the market appeared to find a floor by Thursday and Friday, with prices stabilising between $37.30 and $37.50. One option trade went through for ACCUs vintage Jan27 a 100k trade at $31.00 put spread trade of $1.20.

HIR ACCUs saw mild trading starting the week on Tuesday at $37.50 before closing the day to $37.25 for two 5k parcels, and closing the week early on Thursday at a correction of $37.40.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

With the surrender date for Q4 (14 Feb) coming closer, STC spot market opened the week strong with STC Vintage 2025 trades just under the ceiling price of $39.90 until Tuesday and saw a marginal correction to $39.85 on Wednesday. While STC spot remained stable at $39.60 given the sustained surplus of the clearing house currently sitting at 5Mil certificates, and no trades reported for the rest of the week.

BSTCs were last purchased on January 28, bringing the cumulative BSTC purchased to 32mil units or $1.3Bil to date.

 

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.