• • CER releases quarterly Carbon Market report.

  • LGCs continues the soft decline.

  • VEECs show recovery and positive future outlook.

  • ESCs show late week recovery.

  • PRCs marginally increased and remained stable. 

  • ACCUs saw steady upward momentum.

  • STC prices raise briefly before stabilising.

CER Releases Quarterly Carbon Market Report.

 

Latest Quarterly Carbon Market Report was released last Friday. Key highlights:

• Renewables accounted for 43.7% of electricity generation in the National Electricity Market (NEM) across 2025, surpassing 50% in Q4 for the first time. 

• In 2025, the ACCU Scheme and Renewable Energy Target combined to reduce emissions by an estimated 83.7 million tonnes of CO2. This comprised 21.7 million from ACCUs, 36.9 million from the LRET, and 25.2 million from the SRES. 

• ACCUs exhibit strong supply with a record 21.7 million ACCUs issued in 2025, with 6.7 million issued in Q4 alone. Supply for 2026 is projected to reach between 22 and 26 million units. Total ACCU holdings reached 60.7 million by the end of 2025. Demand is primarily driven by the Safeguard Mechanism, with 1.9 million ACCUs surrendered for compliance in Q4 2025.

• In 2025, LGC creations reached a record 59.7 million, significantly exceeding the forecast of 54–57 million and exceeding demand. This is expected to rise to 64–66 million in 2026. Voluntary and non-RET LGC surrenders reached a record 15.3 million in 2025, a 46% increase year-on-year.  Project approvals remained strong at 4 GW in 2025, including a record 3 GW of solar while 2026 RRP is set slightly lower at 16.67% compared to 17.91% in 2025.

• A total of 25.0 million STCs were created in 2025, which was a 27% decrease compared to 2024 results. Liable entities surrendered 26.0 million STCs to meet their 2025 Small-scale Technology Percentage (STP) obligations, slightly exceeding the total creations for the year. Weekly STC supply averaged around 472,000, which was 5.9% below the level required for the 2025 STP; this was largely due to installers shifting their capacity from solar to battery retrofits under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program (CHBP). CHBP saw over 193,000 valid installations in 2025, delivering 4.6 GWh of capacity—surpassing the capacity of the NEM’s 12 largest large-scale batteries combined.

Weekly Market Update | 2 – 6 March 2026.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

LGC spot prices experienced another downward trend throughout the week. Monday opened with trades between $3.90 and $3.75, the price slipped to $3.50 on Tuesday and declined by Thursday and Friday, hitting a low of $3.15. LGC creation surplus as well as the decreased of RRP is likely to be the primary driver for declining spot prices.

LGC forwards saw a busy week opening on Monday with CAL 26 and CAL 27 holding near the $4.00 mark, but by Friday, CAL 26 had decreased to $3.60 while CAL 27 struggled to maintain $3.50. The later-dated vintages, CAL 28 dropped from an early-week high of $3.55 to finish at $2.90, while CAL 30 established a new normal of $3.00.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC spot market experienced a volatile week. Spot opened strongly on Monday with consistent trades at $83.00, but faced a decline on Tuesday and Wednesday, bottoming out at $82.15. However, trades volume saw an incline toward the end of the week, driving prices back up through Thursday to settle at $82.50 on Friday with significant volume. 

The VEEC forward market showed steady activity this week, with pricing generally holding in the $82.25 to $83.50 range for 2026 vintages and moving toward a firm $84.00 for later years 2027 and 2028. Mid-week trading activity shows prices around the $82.25 while late-week strips and individual trades pushed 2026 pricing slightly higher toward the $83.00 level. The consistent demand for 2027 and 2028 vintages at $84.00 suggests a slightly favorable market outlook.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

The ESC spot market experienced a “V-shaped” trend this week, opening with a downward slide before showing a late-week recovery. Prices opened on Monday at a high of $22.50 but faced a downward trend to a weekly low of $21.95 by Wednesday. However, sentiment shifted on Thursday as trades pushed prices back up to end the week at $22.90 on Friday. Only one forward trade for a 5k trade on Jul-26 at $23.35 went through suggesting a positive outlook for this period.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

Creation levels for PRCs doubled compared to last week totalling 475k certificates created, making up almost 25% of February creation levels. 

PRCs saw a moderate trade this week with trades averaging 50k parcels throughout the week. The market opened on Monday at $2.95 and remained here until the last trade on Wednesday of $2.97. Only one forward trade was recorded for Dec-26 for a 50k trade at $2.90.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

The ACCU market saw steady upward momentum this week. Generic Spot prices began the week trading between $36.25 and $36.30, but tightened by Thursday reaching $36.75. No AD showed even greater volatility and recovery; after dipping as low as $36.10 on Monday, prices climbed consistently through Tuesday and Wednesday to hit a peak of $36.75, and stayed until Friday. Only one forward trade went through for Mar-26 at $36.45

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

The clearing house remained at an all time high of 7.3mil STCs. STC spot saw some volatility this week with a peak of $39.65. The market opened the week at $39.60 before seeing a marginal increase to $39.62 and $39.65 on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Before settling at the same $39.60 level on Thursday, a moderate increase of $39.65 and closed at Monday levels of $39.60 on Friday. 

BSTCs buy order was last issued earlier in the week on Tuesday with 1.8mil STCs purchased. Some industry participants showed concerns as the waiting time for approval of STCs increases.

 

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.