• • NSW Commercial lighting deadline fast approaching
  • VIC regulator identifies potential issues for Midea multi-split Air conditioners installs
  • SA slashes energy reduction target
  • LGCs edge back up.
  • VEECs decline.
  • ESCs steady.
  • PRCs show minor falls.
  • ACCU spot prices rise.
  • STCs slip following extended clearing house surplus.

NSW Commercial lighting deadline shining on the horizon.

The deadline for commercial lighting upgrades under the NSW Energy Savings Scheme is fast approaching – key dates are as follows:

• January 31 2026: The last date for applications for new lighting product approvals to be lodged.
• March 31 2026: Commercial lighting installs must be physically completed, and all associated energy saving certificates (ESCs) must be registered.

To enable sufficient time for ESC processing and registration, paperwork for new lighting installs must be provided to Ecovantage by 16 February. Partners unable to meet this deadline should contact Ecovantage as soon as possible.

Victorian Regulator turns up the heat on air conditioners.

The Essential Services Commission (ESC) and Energy Safe Victoria (ESV) have identified electrical non-compliance in a number of high-efficiency air conditioner (Activity 6) installations under the Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) program.

Investigations flagged the following Midea multi-split systems installed between March and July 2025:

• MULMI0618B
• MDV-V235WN1(AU)-R
• MDV-V235WN1(AU)-A

Installations of these products may have breached either Australian Standards or manufacturer’s guidelines on several criteria. While there’s no perceived safety risk, it’s been identified that product performance may be impaired and warranties will be voided.

Installers are required to return to site and rectify installations that may not have met the standard.

South Australia unleashes the Christmas Grinch on 2026 energy reduction targets.

South Australia’s Retailer Energy Productivity Scheme (REPS) has been a significant success in delivering energy savings and building a skilled workforce. However, the initial feedback on the next stage of the program, REPS2 (2026–2030), announced on Christmas Eve 2025, drastically changes the program.

The annual reduction target has been slashed, falling from 3.75 million gigajoules to 1.65 million – a 56% reduction. And by removing the vast majority of commercial activities and all Large Energy Users, the program has been restricted to residential and small business customers.

This contraction is hard to reconcile with South Australia’s climate and energy objectives. Large businesses offer substantial, cost-effective efficiency opportunities, and their exclusion leaves them unsupported in decarbonisation efforts.

The reduction in scale also risks the specialist skills base – including assessors, electricians, and technicians – developed under the previous framework.

The changes contrast sharply with a consultation conducted several months earlier, which suggested targets might be doubled. And the late announcement has caused significant disruption and a sense of disconnection between government and industry.

Key details are still missing, including activity policies, GJ calculation methodologies, rebate values, and 2026 retailer targets, resulting in a halt to claim approvals under REPS2.

One positive element is the increased target for Priority customers (750,000 GJ), which strengthens the commitment to cost-of-living relief for the most vulnerable members of the community.

However, residential and small business upgrades cannot drive the energy transition alone. The success of REPS relied on balancing ambition, practicality, and both social and economic outcomes. As REPS2 is finalised, there is still an opportunity to restore confidence and scale to ensure South Australia retains its hard-earned capabilities.

This is a synopsis of a recent article prepared by Ecovantage CEO, Aaron Jenkins.

Weekly Market Update | 5 – 9 January 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

After a volatile 2025, which saw LGC price collapse with pricing falling from above the $30.00  level down to single digits, 2026 opened on a slightly more positive note.

After commencing the week at $6.25, spot edged up on several relatively small trades, culminating the week with a 20k parcel at $6.75, an increase of 8% across the opening week of the year.

There was little action to speak of in the CAL25, CAL26 and CAL27 forward markets, with positive gains to the CAL25 vintage being the most notable movement. On Tuesday, 115k CAL25 certificates changed hands, and then on Thursday, a 30k parcel exchanged at $6.75, bringing CAL25 into line with the spot price.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

The VEEC market showed negative momentum during the first week of the new year – the spot price consistently trading down throughout the week finishing at $75.90 – a drop of 3%.

While the forwards markets were mostly quiet, at the week’s opening a 30k parcel in April 26 traded down $2.50 to $78.00 and later in the week, a small 5k parcel for May 26 traded at  $75.80 – a noticeable $5.70 decline since the last transaction for the same period.

These price falls will be exacerbated by the new certificate (VEEC) registration fees, which have increased by $2.00, effective from the start of 2026.

The VEU Industry Reference Group also had their first meeting in December, during which concerns were raised about high-efficiency air conditioner systems (Activity 6), with the perception being some systems were being designed based on VEEC rebate values rather than consumer needs. The commission reiterated their intention to investigate any concerns about participant conduct, which can be reported anonymously at any time.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

Trading was light on the ESC market, with a total of 50k certificates trading on the spot during the middle of the week, as pricing held firm at $23.00.

There was no activity on the forward markets,  where pricing has generally remained a step higher than the current spot, representing an upwards curve.

Registrations were down, with just 10,875 certificates registered across the week, with Commercial Lighting representing more than 80% of the total volume.
The forward market trading at a premium is likely a reflection of the expectation that ESC creation levels will decline once commercial lighting is discontinued from the Energy Savings Scheme at the end of the first quarter of 2026.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

There was some minor PRC activity in both the spot and forward markets, although this had no material effect on certificate pricing. On Tuesday, a 50k parcel traded down by $0.03 to $2.85, but this drop was short-lived, as a further 135k certificates traded two days later, nudging the price back up to $2.86.

In the forwards – a 100k strip in February 2026 and March 2026 traded down a step lower to $2.89, and a further 100k in May 2026 settled at $2.90 – representing a $0.05 cent fall in the latter vintage.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

Despite relatively light trading, the Generic and No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) spots both traded up. Generics finished the week with a 5k parcel at $37.85, $1.55 higher than the opening price. The No AD spot showed similar gains, up $1.45 to close the week at $38.00.

The forwards market saw 65k July 2026 Generic ACCUs traded at a slight premium of $38.37.

The Human Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot also saw positive momentum, culminating in a 15k parcel trading at week’s end for $37.80, an increase of $1.30 across the week.

It was very quiet on the Method Specific ACCU front – with a solitary parcel of 6k for Environmental Planting trading at $56.00 – a gain of $2.00.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

With the clearing house surplus continuing to grow over the past few weeks, and now standing at more than 7 million certificates, the STC price has started to decline.

Despite light trading which saw 150k certificates traded across the week, the STC spot price ended the week at $39.50, $0.45 lower since the start of the new year.

The short forward markets also showed signs of weakness, with a 20k strip across February-April 2026 also slipping back to $39.50.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available at Market Update >

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.