Weekly Market Update | 27 – 31 July 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The LGC market was a buzz of activity this week, with a strong rally on Tuesday resulting in gains across the board.

Driven by strong buying interest, Tuesday’s session saw over 600,000 certificates exchanged, pushing prices above the $6.00 level across vintages, with CAL27s peaking at $7.00. It appeared as though this interest would fail to sustain throughout the week with the spot, CAL26-CAL28s all losing ground on Wednesday and Thursday. However, buying appetite returned on Friday, seeing spot push higher to close at $7.25.

This concludes another wild month in LGCs, with the spot market losing close to 50% of its value a fortnight ago before rebounding and regaining its losses. With ongoing uncertainty regarding requirements for data centres to purchase renewable energy to offset consumption during construction, it remains to be seen where we’ll see LGC pricing head into August and beyond.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

VEECs experienced another quiet week, as the spot market drifted downwards throughout to close a step lower at $83.00. This comes off the back of another strong month of creation volumes at just over 506,000. Despite this figure representing a decline of approximately 15% on June’s (598,000) volumes, this tracks well against the target set for 2026 at 4.4m.

These strong levels are expected to continue ahead of the scheduled changes to the program’s overwhelming primary creator – Activity 6 (High Efficiency Air Conditioning) – due to be introduced at the end of September. Included in the changes are caps to incentives for multi-split air conditioning units above 20kW, following over-sizing concerns identified during a series of field audit compliance blitzes by the Essential Services Commission.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

The ESC market saw a soft rebound this week, as the spot returned above the $29.00 level for the first time in a fortnight.

Movement was again limited to the spot market, as forward trading has evaporated over recent weeks, with market participants failing to indicate any buying interest due to a complete lack of certificate activity. Registration volumes have slowed to a standstill, with just 45,000 certificates entering the TESSA portal in July.

Despite the introduction of the Home Energy Saver, given the distinct lack of changes to the program under the newly introduced ESS rule, there are concerns that this inactivity could continue throughout the remainder of 2026. While the liquidity surplus currently remains healthy, this will rapidly erode should registration volumes fail to make any meaningful headway.

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

The much-anticipated revival of activity in the PRC market failed to accelerate this week ahead of the upcoming introduction of commercial BESS activities. Monday saw the only spot action, with a single 100k spot trade drawing pricing down to $3.00 even before buying interest ground to a halt through the remainder of the week.

The forwards market was a little more lively, though it indicated a relatively steep downwards curve, as strips for late 2026 and early 2027 were agreed between $2.75-$2.78.

Market participants will watch with keen interest, as the newly-introduced BESS activities find their feet and the HVAC activity now permits the installation of multi-split air conditioning units – measures which are anticipated to drive growth in registration volumes.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

Interest in ACCUs picked up this week with some late-week action seeing both the spot and forwards market trading at a premium. This saw the spot and spot No Avoided Deforestation (AD) markets close at $38.35 and $38.30, up from Monday’s opening of $37.80.

The forwards market showed an upwards curve, as 25k parcels for April and May 2027 agreed at $39.25. The only reported trade in the Method Specific markets was a 5k HIR (Native Title) transaction at $37.00.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs were again quiet, moving sideways as the Clearing House surplus continues to slowly erode, sitting at just over 2m certificates at the time of writing.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available below.

Federal Renewable Energy Target.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

Victorian Energy Upgrades Program.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

NSW Energy Savings Scheme.

Energy Savings Certificates (ESCs).

Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS)

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs) are tradable certificates under the NSW Government’s Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS).

1 PRC represents 0.1 kilowatts of peak demand reduction capacity averaged over one hour during the peak summer period.

This aims to encourage peak energy use reduction within peak demand times, to reduce pressure on the electricity grid and in turn reduce energy prices.

Federal Emissions Reduction Fund.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

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