Weekly Market Update | 9 – 13 March 2026

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

The ongoing LGC downturn continued again this week, as prices dipped after a quiet start to the week. Wednesday saw prices in later vintages plunge below the $3.00 level for the first time, with the spot market trailing closely behind – closing the week at $3.15.

Though the price of Renewable Electricity Guarantee of Origin (REGO) certificates is yet to be set, speculation continues that the ongoing downward trend is being partly driven by an expectation to tie the price of LGCs to REGOs.

These basement prices do, however, present a positive to entities seeking to offset their Scope 2 emissions.

As the wider market adjusts to Tranche 1 and 2 of Mandatory Climate Reporting and the impacts on their businesses, these effects are being passed onto downstream suppliers who are increasingly looking to balance their emissions with renewable electricity purchases.

For those interested in understanding more about this process and its implications, please contact Ecovantage.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

VEECs were uncharacteristically quiet, with initially spot drifting across thin liquidity to close the week a step lower at $82.25. The forward market was even quieter, as there were no reported trades in a shortened week, after Monday’s public holiday.

Monthly creation has slowed, relative to last month, at just under 165,000 VEECs – just shy of March’s midpoint. Should this pace continue, this would see 2026 volumes fall short of this year’s compliance target of 4.4m VEECs.

With Activity 6 continuing to represent the overwhelming majority of creation (83% of monthly creation), this is leading to industry concerns that these extreme levels of market concentration could hasten saturation, leaving few viable avenues for supply heading into 2027.

Energy Saving Certificates (ESCs)

Interest picked up in ESCs this week, resulting in spot oscillating at and below the $23.00 level.

Midweek action threatened to see it surge higher, before settling and closing at $22.90.

Thursday saw a handful of 10k forwards transacted for April, May and June 2026, all agreed above the spot rate, indicating a modest upwards curve.

Weekly ESC registrations were soft again at just over 76,000, as the expected final push for Commercial Lighting is failing to materialise.

Though tracking to surpass February’s volumes (212,000), there was a widely held expectation that the 31 March deadline would result in a strong conclusion to the Commercial Lighting method. However, this is not eventuating, with ESC volumes continuing to flag. Though the liquidity surplus remains strong, traders are begging the question – where are the ESCs going to come from?

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs)

After a quiet week, PRCs shot up late to close 8% higher at $3.20. This comes as monthly registrations have slowed after a bumper month in February, which clocked in at over 1.92m certificates. March, however, is down threefold, tracking towards 650,000 PRCs.

With changes on the way, via the upcoming ESS Rule Change, it is hoped that activity can be sparked once again to breathe some life into the PDRS.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

Moderate activity again this week in ACCUs, with both the Generics and Human-Induced Generation (HIRs) down and then up again to largely close where they opened.

This marks an extended period of stability for a market that experienced monthly percentage swings of 10% and above throughout the last quarter of 2025.

With demand in the voluntary market expanding, it remains to be seen whether this will outstrip supply, driving prices higher in 2027 – following the completion of the ACCU scheme review.

Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs)

STCs remained stagnant at $39.60, as the Clearing House surplus sat at 8.16m certificates at the time of writing.

Certificates spot prices & graphs available below.

Federal Renewable Energy Target.

Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs)

Victorian Energy Upgrades Program.

Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificates (VEECs)

NSW Energy Savings Scheme.

Energy Savings Certificates (ESCs).

Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS)

Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs) are tradable certificates under the NSW Government’s Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS).

1 PRC represents 0.1 kilowatts of peak demand reduction capacity averaged over one hour during the peak summer period.

This aims to encourage peak energy use reduction within peak demand times, to reduce pressure on the electricity grid and in turn reduce energy prices.

Federal Emissions Reduction Fund.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

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